Trade Summary - Early August 2009

For the first 2-3 weeks of August, I was trading badly without much patience. Too eager to make the killing resulted in early entry where trend was not confirmed.

For this week's trade, I stared again with 5 new entries:

1. AscendasREIT - bought at 1.64. Buy signal.
2. CapitaMall - bought at 1.55 on buy signal.
3. Keppel Land - bought at 2.62 on buy signal.
4. Meiban - bought at 0.35 on buy signal break out. Could be false break out.
5. Wing Tai - bought at 1.75 on buy signal.


Here is the chart of Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust. The buy signal based on RSMA expert coupled with over sold situation and low MACD. The counter seemed to be moving along an uptrend channel. However, it has gone through many waves and potentially, it may be exhausted. If it breaks the bottom trend line, then, can exit quickly. If it breaks the upper trend line, then, there is potential for break out.

Trading Update - NOL, CapitaCom, SwingMedia, Mercator, Yanlord

NOL went up to 1.71 and then went down. The market looks bad last week. Sold off at 1.62 took some losses.

Swing Media was looking weak. Sold at 0.06 after getting devidend. Took some losses.

CapitaCom was down to 0.84. Hold. This counter was bought too early because Stochastic has not shown oversold.

Mercator was down to 0.32 broke cut loss point. Sold at 0.33. This counter is not showing strength. Also because Rickmers Marine is showing bad results and cutting dividends.

Bought Cosco on the counter trend trade at 1.20. Went up to 1.27 but retreated to 1.18. Sold at 1.23 since the counter does not show strength each time there is an up market. This counter could be weak again for some time.

Sold SembMar upon weakness. The counter showed sudden drop in price and continue to show down trend for another 2 days. Sold on bounce at 3.09.

Sold Yanlord at 2.39. Lost 0.01 plus transaction fee. Counter went down to 2.30 before bouncing back.

Overall last 2 weeks's trade was messed up by some greed in early entry resulting in unnecessary drawdowns. In order to go back to the rules and strategies, decided to sell off almost all and start afresh.

Trading update - UOL, COSCO, SwingMedia, Yanlord, Unifiber, NOL, etc

COSCO: Sold at 1.29 due to sell signal + Stochastic and RSMA Oscilator are trending down. Loss of 0.03.

UOL: Sold at 3.46 due to sell signal + Stochastic was neutral RSMA still positive. One of the reason is low volume. This makes the counter difficult to play as it requires larger margin in order to be able to sell at the price you want. It went on to move up to 3.64 etc. However, this is totally unexpected based on the chart. Loss of 0.07.

Unifiber: Bought at 0.06 and sold and 0.065 on contra. This counter was only for playing.

Swingmedia: Bought at 0.065. Tried to sell at 0.07 on contra but still holding. Dividend.

Capitacomm: Bought at 0.875 on RSMA buy signal. Stochastic still trending down. I think entry was too early and have to wait for longer.

Bought Yanlord at 2.40. Reason was that it was sold down from 2.82 to 2.40 within 3 days. But result announced was quite good. The sell down was probably due to Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Bought Mercator at 0.335 and 0.35. Selling has been done and seems to be subsided. So, there should be buyers coming in for the bargain soon.

Bought NOL at 1.63. Reason for buying was that it has gone through quite fast correction from 1.81 to 1.63 and at that level, the support seems strong previously.

GoldenAgri went on to move up to over 0.51 and higher. Which means that I had put too much money on the table because I failed to buy back on the immediate buy signal.

Trading Update - Olam, UOL and Cosco

Sold Olam at 2.51 bought at 2.48
Reason for selling: The chart does not look good. RSMA sell signal and Stochastic also giving sell signal which confirms the sell.

Cosco sold at a lost at 1.29. Bought at 1.32.
Reason for selling: Same as Olam.

UOL Sold at 3.46. Bought at 3.53.
Reason for selling: Both MA and Stochastic show uncertainty. Overall market seems heading for correction. Since it is uncertain, might as well sell off and wait again.

Sembmar - hold
Reason: MA and Stochatics still bullish even through it is undergoing some correction. Will wait for sell signal to confirm. I believe sell signal will appear tonight and I will hold this over the long weekend. For counter trade, it is possible to add more position to this counter. However, I will not take additional risk for now.

Trading update - Golden Agri

Sold half of the holdings on sell signal at 0.405 on market.
Queue (limit order) at 0.41. Yesterday close at 0.40 (stop loss point).
My RSMA expert showed sell signal. Also, last few trading session indicates moving away from upper line of Bollinger Band.
Decided to sell all later because the counter is extremely quite and all the transactions are extremely small. No big player in sight. Only small players playing with small lots of 1 lot to 10 lots.
In summary: Golden Agri Resource -> Good trade with 16.6% net gain (after all transaction fees) in 2 weeks.

Overall market seems to be soften for now. There could be some corrections coming soon. Whatever it is, I will still wait for the signals from the system.

Current holdings:
Cosco: bought at 1.32.
Sembmar: bought at 2.85
Olam: bought at 2.48
UOL: bought at 3.53

Sold Olam later at 2.51. This counter has not been showing a lot of strength. The overall market looks weak. There is a bid sell down today for no aparent reason. This might signal further weakness or correction. Overall market is over bought. Market is waiting for more data to be released. Decided to take a cautious approach.

On the hindsight, the selling of Golden Agri seemed unwarranted because it bounced up 0.02 to close at 0.425. That is almost 5% higher from the sold price. This indicates that the system is too aggressive in issuing signals. Another parameter is needed to control the signal or making decision. More research into this area is needed. Some solutions are:

The use of N maybe needed. For example, setting the stop at 2N to take higher risk?
The used support line?
Use of other indicators like RMO, Bollinger Bands?

Anyway, it is still too early to tell if the price of GoldenAgri will sustain. Let's see how it will move from here.

One of the big fear has been prices plunging through the cut loss point dramatically. This could result in taking too much risk and potentially losing everything in a short. The market is now very volatile and changes are fast and sometimes furious.

Trading Update

Sold Mercator Maritime on Sell Signal. Bought at 0.355 sold at 0.37.
Now closed at 0.335.

Sold Capitaland on panic. Bought at 3.78 sold at 3.92.
Now closed at 3.77.

Bought UOL on buy signal at 3.53 closed at 3.5.

Thinking of selling GoldenAgri at 0.43, then 0.425 then 0.42. Now closed at 0.40. Reason for holding is that stop loss is at 0.40 and wanted to follow rules strictly. So, if the counter show more weakness, it will be time to sell tomorrow. Early part of day showed some

Olam show weakness. Closed at 2.55.

SembMar closed at 3.18. Showing some weakness also.

Cosco bought at 1.32. Show some buying interest but close at 1.32 after overall market going down.

The overall market is at the over bought level and most of the counters are also at that level. It is imperative to be cautious. Tomorrow will be critical day in deciding whether to exit the positions. Looks like the overall market is heading for correction. If so, then, there will be more down side since it failed to make higher high.