Trade Summary May 2011 SGX

Still struggling with the trades. Basically, sometimes, I just lose patience and make moves that only regret later. Essentially, I am still having trouble sticking to a system or should I say, still trying to figure out what is the most suitable system that I can adopt.

Trades Since 01-01-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	NetProfit	DIV	Tot Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
ComfortDelgro	5000	1.5400	1.480	-300.00	61.17	-361.17	140	-221.17	-2.87%	09/03/2011	19/05/2011
ComfortDelgro	5000	1.4700	1.480	50.00	61.00	-11.00	140	129.00	1.76%	09/05/2011	19/05/2011
CapitaLand	3000	3.1500	3.170	60.00	66.44	-6.44	180	173.56	1.84%	15/03/2011	19/05/2011
CapitaLand	2000	3.1000	3.170	140.00	59.87	80.13	120	200.13	3.23%	17/03/2011	19/05/2011
Wilmar	3000	5.1267	5.410	850.00	110.77	739.23	0	739.23	4.81%	05/05/2011	24/05/2011

The total REALIZED profit is S$1,020.75.
Well, I can say that, at least to console myself, it is a profitable month even though it is rather pathetic.

How did I do comparing to STI performance (excluding my Dividends)

Month Ended	Total Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	Vested	Chg	Port Perf	STI val	STI Perf
31/12/2010	107,021.21	98,120.00	8,901.21	91.7%			3212
31/01/2011	104,898.73	78,760.00	26,138.73	75.1%	-2.0%	-2.0%	3180	-1.0%
28/02/2011	104,988.58	18,350.00	86,638.58	17.5%	0.1%	-1.9%	3011	-6.3%
31/03/2011	104,999.09	67,770.00	37,229.09	64.5%	0.0%	-1.9%	3106	-3.3%
30/04/2011	105,604.51	24,650.00	80,954.51	23.3%	0.6%	-1.3%	3179	-1.0%
31/05/2011	104,639.94	59,330.00	45,309.94	56.7%	-0.9%	-2.2%	3159	-1.7%

Through out this year, my portfolio performed below par compared to STI. STI is down about 1.7% whereas my portfolio was down more than 2.2%. I am about 0.5% below par.

Looking back, since March this year, I had switched from S-Chip and Penny to STI counters. Buy trading STI counters, it is more difficult to beat the STI itself. However, this is a much lower risk method of trading. Trading in S-Chips and Penny will result is much better performance but carries a significantly higher risk.

One of my mistake was to stay in cash for too long in March and April while observing the market direction.

Right now, I notice many stock in SGX are showing down trend. I am not sure if this is going to persist for long. If this is just a short correction, I would move back into the market again. However, there is also a chance that this is a prelude to a more major problem to come. In stock market, anything can happen. One can only guess.

China Market still bearish

Since the last update about 2 weeks ago, the SSE has since turned around slightly. I appears that a new trend is form with less steep slope downwards. This could signal potential turn around is near. The prices are moving down in much slower rate and some stocks could be starting to move up. Of course the recent AgBank IPO could also lift the market a little bit. However, recent comments from analyst about the bad practices of local banks could dampen the spirit.



Could see turning around in a couple of weeks if things goes well.

Stock Price Pattern - CityDev - Head & Shoulder

CityDev seemed to be forming head and shoulder pattern with the neckline broken. If this is true then we should expect the price to hit S$5.12 (around there). So, there is no point to make any purchase now.

I would monitor for a few days on this counter. In any case, all the Property Sector are experiancing similar faith.

Stock Price Movement - DBS

Revised Window Of Opportunity by Time Horizon (WOOTH) for DBS updated with price adjustment due to Rights Issue:


Today, DBS is trading in the "safe entry" zone below S$8.20. But due shooting star in the weeklya and daily charts, it would be prudent to wait and see before entering. See below for a chart done last week on 7th Jan 2009 night. Shooting star appeared on 7th Jan 2009 when I happened to look at DBS. On a weekly basis, the shooting star become more pronounced.



This was followed by 3 more down days. Expected to go to below 8.15 but stay above 8.00. If 8.00 broken, further support at 7.60.

STI Chart Pattern - Market Review

The Market is turning bullish for short term now. Looking at the STI chart, you can see that it has bounced off the support for the second time and it stays above 20 Day MA. Apart from that, the 5Day MA is also above the 20 Day MA. That shows that short term, the market is still bullish even though there has been some corrections. There has been some strong buying early last week before the bad news set in especially the failure to reach agreement on bailout package for auto industry in US.

Singapore Stock Market Trend: Not bottom yet

In line with the Dow Jones and S&P500, the STI is showing no signs of bottoming. Looking at the various levels of support and resistance, we can only conclude that there is more down side. So far, the volume does not show any sign of panic selling, unlike 1998 or 2001 or even March 2008. The current down trend seems to be slow and steady. In that sense, we will have to wait for the slow turn around as well. We should not expect quick bottoming even if the US$700 bail out plan (or buy out plan as some would like to call it) is approved.

Here is the STI chart.


There seems to be some divergence from the indicators which may signal some short term rebounce. Nothing is indicative of any sustainable rally coming (talking about sustainable for a for over 3 months). The market can stay oversold for quite a while.