Trade Summary July 2011

July is a really bad month. It was hit by 2 unexpected events. One is the Ezra sudden fall by over 20% over 3 days because of poor results and another by SIA falling by 3.7% overnight. The combination of 2 counters accounted for 3.5% loss in the overall portfolio. The counter trend trade on NOL also did not work out. That accounted for another 0.5% loss in the overall portfolio. SMRT drop due to poor outlook also provided another 0.2% negative impact.

The month started rather positively with overall gain of about 2.5% and ended with an overall lost of 1.5%. Total draw down within the month is almost 4%. In a month that looks very promising at the beginning and ended with disappointing results.

Month Ended	Portfolio Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	DIV (Cum)	Vested	Chg	Portf Perf	STI Perf
31/12/2010	107,021.21	98,120.00	8,901.21		91.7%
31/01/2011	104,898.73	78,760.00	26,138.73		75.1%	-2.0%	-1.98%	-1.00%
28/02/2011	105,063.58	18,350.00	86,638.58	75.00	17.5%	0.2%	-1.83%	-6.26%
31/03/2011	105,074.09	67,770.00	37,229.09	75.00	64.5%	0.0%	-1.82%	-3.30%
30/04/2011	105,679.51	24,650.00	80,954.51	75.00	23.3%	0.6%	-1.25%	-1.03%
31/05/2011	105,154.94	59,330.00	45,309.94	515.00	56.4%	-0.5%	-1.74%	-1.65%
30/06/2011	104,713.75	73,430.00	30,643.75	640.00	70.1%	-0.4%	-2.16%	-2.58%
31/07/2011	102,789.02	83,260.00	18,551.52	977.50	81.0%	-1.8%	-3.95%	-0.72%

The market is always unpredictable. We need to live with it. July was a month with many negative financial news. Firstly, the Greek sovereign default and now the US debt ceiling. Even though the US debt ceiling is essentially non-event, the lack of economic growth is casting an extremely dark shadow on the investors worldwide. With the US unemployment potentially climbing up again, investors are looking else where to put their money. Gold is making new highs. Oil is not going too much higher partly because the US are selling part of their reserves.

Moving forward, it is more prudent not to take any counter trend trades. Even though the potential for achieving larger gains, the risk is much higher. The chance of success is below 50% and it is not worth taking such risks.

Trade Summary June 2011

After some miserable months, June starts to look a little better. But again, some silly mistakes were made when trying to optimize the portfolio. At times, over balancing is in fact counter productive. More patience is need for events to unfold and things to play out. Too much fear gets in the way for higher profits. The portfolio performance is slightly above the STI performance.

Month Ended	Portfolio Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	DIV (Cum)	Vested	Chg	Portf Perf	STI Perf
31/12/2010	107,021.21	98,120.00	8,901.21		91.7%
31/01/2011	104,898.73	78,760.00	26,138.73		75.1%	-2.0%	-1.98%	-1.00%
28/02/2011	105,063.58	18,350.00	86,638.58	75.00	17.5%	0.2%	-1.83%	-6.26%
31/03/2011	105,074.09	67,770.00	37,229.09	75.00	64.5%	0.0%	-1.82%	-3.30%
30/04/2011	105,679.51	24,650.00	80,954.51	75.00	23.3%	0.6%	-1.25%	-1.03%
31/05/2011	105,154.94	59,330.00	45,309.94	515.00	56.4%	-0.5%	-1.74%	-1.65%
30/06/2011	104,713.75	73,430.00	30,643.75	640.00	70.1%	-0.4%	-2.16%	-2.58%

The portfolio is more stable now.

With the new balancing of the portfolio, hopefully, the following month will see extra boost to the performance.

The trades taken was less than impressive. For the case of Ezra, it was too quick to cut loss. And for Noble, the trade should not have been taken at all.

Trades Since 01-01-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	NetProfit	DIV	Tot Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
Noble	5000	2.1000	1.970	-650.00	71.31	-721.31	125	-596.31	-5.68%	09/05/2011	13/06/2011
Ezra	10000	1.4200	1.380	-400.00	98.12	-498.12	0	-498.12	-3.51%	14/06/2011	18/06/2011

However, all is not lost. At least, I am not left with a more stable portfolio. With SinoGrandness and Ezra moving very positively, the portfolio is currently about 4% in the money excluding pending dividend (provided I hold on to the counters). Since both SIA and SMRT are relatively stable counter, I would not likely to sell them easily. The price fluctuation of these 2 counters are considered very low.

Stock Name Cash Holdings	Total Qty	Wgt Ave Price $	Last Done Price $	Unrealised P/L	Reason for Entry
Ezra	10,000	1.550	1.595	450.00	Bounce from support
NOL	10,000	1.490	1.485	-50.00	Support / Pullback
SIA	1,000	14.180	14.340	160.00	Trend / Pull back / Oil price
SinoGrandness	40,000	0.468	0.525	2,300.00	Support / Pullback
SMRT	5,000	1.890	1.950	300.00	Support Line / price hike

Trade Summary for month ended March 31, 2011

This is a bad month. There has been panic selling due to Japan Nuclear Crisis.

Trades Since 01-03-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	NetProfit	Tot Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
Capitaland	5000	3.3200	3.350	150.00	116.87	33.13	33.13	0.20%	02/03/2011	07/03/2011
Noble	5000	2.2000	2.060	-700.00	74.64	-774.64	-774.64	-7.04%	02/03/2011	10/03/2011
Gallant	30000	0.3850	0.360	-750.00	78.32	-828.32	-828.32	-7.17%	02/03/2011	11/03/2011
MIDAS	10000	0.7650	0.675	-900.00	60.82	-960.82	-960.82	-12.56%	04/03/2011	16/03/2011
LeaderEnv	40000	0.2450	0.235	-400.00	67.28	-467.28	-467.28	-4.77%	09/03/2011	28/03/2011

Incurred a net loss of S$-5071.56.
However, there are some unrealized profits in there. So, the actual loss is not that severe. But then, we will only count the profit after they are realized. In fact, I made picked up some counters during the down period (as can be seen in the portfolio standing), taking this opportunity to switch from S-Chips to blue chips.

The main reason for such poor performance was panic selling. This is something to be avoided at all cost next time. In fact, there should be bargain hunting during major sell offs.

So, how did the portfolio stand against STI index as benchmark?

Overall, the STI index advanced over 3.5% but my portfolio remained at the same level. No advances nor retreat.
In that sense, my portfolio lags the index by 3.5% on March 2011 alone.
This is one of the problem with too active trading.

Panic selling is actually not wrong with panic selling. At least it protects yourself from the carnage of massive sell down. When there is major crash, the first part is selling. Followed by buying. I think I need to do better in the second part. That is buying after major sell off. The table below shows the actual numbers of the performance.

Month Ended	Total Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	Vested	Chg	Port Perf	STI val
28/02/2010	88,241.76	29,100.00	59,141.76	33.0%			2750
31/03/2010	81,884.82	37,210.00	44,674.82	45.4%	-7.2%	-7.2%	2887
30/04/2010	89,801.52	30,650.00	59,151.52	34.1%	9.7%	1.8%	2975
31/05/2010	81,884.82	37,210.00	44,674.82	45.4%	-8.8%	-7.2%	2753
30/06/2010	84,523.72	24,650.00	59,873.72	29.2%	3.2%	-4.2%	2836
31/07/2010	86,770.52	70,610.00	16,160.52	81.4%	2.7%	-1.7%	2988
31/08/2010	84,503.39	55,450.00	29,053.39	65.6%	-2.6%	-4.2%	2753
30/09/2010	89,778.20	47,150.00	42,628.20	52.5%	6.2%	1.7%	3098
31/10/2010	94,407.07	69,550.00	24,857.07	73.7%	5.2%	7.0%	3143
30/11/2010	95,045.95	60,200.00	34,845.95	63.3%	0.7%	7.7%	3145
31/12/2010	107,021.21	98,120.00	8,901.21	91.7%	12.6%	21.3%	3212
31/01/2011	104,898.73	78,760.00	26,138.73	75.1%	-2.0%	18.9%	3180
28/02/2011	104,988.58	18,350.00	86,638.58	17.5%	0.1%	19.0%	3011
31/03/2011	104,999.09	67,770.00	37,229.09	64.5%	0.0%	19.0%	3106

There has been some buying up during March as well. The current position including those bought today are as follows:

Stock Name Cash Holdings	Total Qty	Wgt Ave Price $	Last Done Price $	Unrealised P/L	Reason for Entry
Capitaland	5,000	3.130	3.300	850.00	Buy on panic sale
ComfortDelgro	5,000	1.540	1.570	150.00	MACD Cross Over
HL Asia	5,000	2.840	2.830	-50.00	Breakout double bottom
Rotary Engg	10,000	0.960	0.965	50.00	Breakout double bottom
SinoGrandness	20,000	0.470	0.550	1,600.00	Stochastic Over Sold
StraitsAsiaRes	5,000	2.440	2.550	550.00	Major Trend/Correction
Wilmar	2,000	5.040	5.470	860.00	Value/Panic Sale

March 2011 is trading month characterized by the Japan Earth Quake, Tsunami & Nuclear Crisis and the political unrest in North Africa and Middle East. Given such a negative backdrop, the stock market hardly fell. Not to mention crash. This somehow indicates the bullish sentiment. As such, I tried to take opportunity to buy into some counters that has dipped.

Moving forward, there is also a conscious effort from my part to focus more on blue chips and large cap stocks from Singapore and avoid China based S-Chips. Only selected S-Chips will be traded and for short term basis. There has been too many accounting scandals involving these companies.

I hope I will do better this month.

Stock Trading Results Feb 2011

Here is the results:
Most of the counters were sold during the correction. Some of the counters suffered more than expected losses due to procrastination. That means failure to follow my own rules. Overall, the result was below satisfaction particularly failing to cut losses according to the 10% rules.

TRADE CLOSED IN FEBRUARY 2011

Trades Since 01-Feb-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	Profit	Net Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
UniFood	100000	0.0850	0.075	-1,000.00	61.63	-1,061.63	-1,061.63	-12.49%	10/02/2011	15/02/2011
SinoGrandness	40000	0.4250	0.565	5,600.00	138.77	5,461.23	5,461.23	32.12%	22/10/2010	15/02/2011
STX PO	1000	13.1600	12.000	-1,160.00	88.17	-1,248.17	-1,248.17	-9.48%	09/12/2010	16/02/2011
UETF SSE 50	5000	1.9500	2.000	250.00	69.21	180.79	180.79	1.85%	01/02/2011	22/02/2011
RenewableEne	40000	0.2550	0.190	-2,600.00	66.36	-2,666.36	-2,666.36	-26.14%	17/01/2011	22/02/2011
CapitaMallAsia	5000	1.9300	1.750	-900.00	65.01	-965.01	-965.01	-10.00%	01/12/2010	23/02/2011

NET PROFIT/LOSS = $-299.15
Moving forward, I hope to be more discipline and follow my own rules more strictly. On top of that, there is also a need to look into improving the trading rules. What are they? Where to modify? Not finalized yet.

TRADE CLOSED IN JANUARY 2011

Trades Since 01-01-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	Profit	Net Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
Delong	20000	0.5100	0.570	1,200.00	75.69	1,124.31	1,124.31	11.02%	06/12/2010	04/01/2011
UETF 50 SSE	5000	2.0700	2.080	50.00	72.71	-22.71	-22.71	-0.22%	21/07/2010	13/01/2011
China Sky Chem	50000	0.2500	0.255	250.00	88.48	161.52	161.52	1.29%	29/09/2009	13/01/2011
ComfortDelgro	5000	1.4700	1.630	800.00	61.38	738.62	738.62	10.05%	03/11/2010	14/01/2011
China Sky Chem	50000	0.1850	0.250	3,250.00	76.22	3,173.78	3,173.78	34.31%	01/12/2010	14/01/2011
China Sky Chem	50000	0.2000	0.240	2,000.00	77.09	1,922.91	1,922.91	19.23%	06/12/2010	17/01/2011
FalconEnergy	40000	0.4600	0.485	1,000.00	132.46	867.54	867.54	4.71%	10/12/2010	27/01/2011

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS = $+7965.97

Trade summary of Jan 2011

Here are the trades closed in Jan 2011 as of 21st Jan 2011.

06/12/2010  B  DelongH                20000  0.510  -  -
04/01/2011  S  DelongH                20000  -  0.570  1124.30
29/09/2009  B  China Sky              50000  0.250  -  -
13/01/2011  S  China Sky              50000  -  0.255  161.50
26/07/2010  B  UETF SSE50 China 100   5000  2.070  -  -
13/01/2011  S  UETF SSE50 China 100   5000  -  2.080  -22.71
02/11/2010  B  ComfortDelGro          5000  1.470  -  -
14/01/2011  S  ComfortDelGro          5000  -  1.630  738.60
01/12/2010  B  China Sky              50000  0.185  -  -
14/01/2011  S  China Sky              50000  -  0.250  3173.77
06/12/2010  B  China Sky              50000  0.200  -  -
17/01/2011  S  China Sky              50000  -  0.240  1922.91
                           TOTAL PROFIT (S$)          7098.37

These trades were initiated in December 2010. The results varies. However, it can be said that Jan 2011 has been a profitable month. The key is to keep the momentum moving.

Stock Trading Summary

I had been trading on and off this year. I only trade more actively since August 2010 onwards. I had been inactive at the beginning of the year and was interrupted by a project in May and June. Apart from that I had been doing currency trade which was not a very fruitful venture.

Trades Since 01-01-2010	Qty.	Buy	Cost $	Sell	Valuation $	Gain/Loss	Fees	Profit	Dividend	Net Profit	% ROI	Comments	Bought	Sold
Bio-Treat	50,000	0.0650	3,250.00	0.135	6,750.00	3,500.00	58.58	3,441.42		3,441.42	105.89%	Price Sudden Surge, bound to retreat.	16/10/2009	13/01/2010
Yanlord	3,000	2.0200	6,060.00	1.950	5,850.00	-210.00	59.55	-269.55		-269.55	-4.45%	Down Trend.	19/01/2010	21/01/2010
Capitaland	2,000	3.5100	7,020.00	3.780	7,560.00	540.00	60.91	479.09		479.09	6.82%	Market Down Trend	21/05/2010	24/06/2010
ComfortDelgro	5,000	1.4800	7,400.00	1.540	7,700.00	300.00	61.17	238.83		238.83	3.23%	Market Down Trend	20/05/2010	24/06/2010
Bio-Treat	50,000	0.0650	3,250.00	0.080	4,000.00	750.00	57.18	692.82		692.82	21.32%	Price Sudden Surge, bound to retreat.	04/09/2010	13/01/2010
STX PO	1,000	13.6000	13,600.00	14.000	14,000.00	400.00	96.72	303.28		303.28	2.23%		07/09/2010	10/08/2010
Delong	20,000	0.6050	12,100.00	0.658	13,150.00	1,050.00	88.48	961.52		961.52	7.95%	Low volume after long up trend	11/01/2010	20/09/2010
Bio-Treat	50,000	0.0850	4,250.00	0.090	4,500.00	250.00	57.95	192.05		192.05	4.52%	Not for long term.	15/09/2010	24/09/2010
GuangZhaoIFB	100,000	0.0650	6,500.00	0.070	7,000.00	500.00	60.36	439.64		439.64	6.76%	Sell on Fear. Not for long term.	22/09/2010	23/09/2010
Hoe Leong	20,000	0.3600	7,200.00	0.355	7,100.00	-100.00	60.77	-160.77		-160.77	-2.23%	Wrong Entry. Cut loss fast.	23/09/2010	24/09/2010
UETF 50 SSE	5,000	1.9000	9,500.00	2.200	11,000.00	1,500.00	71.84	1,428.16		1,428.16	15.03%	Reasonable gain obtained	07/07/2010	15/10/2010
UETF 50 SSE	5,000	2.0200	10,100.00	2.240	11,200.00	1,100.00	74.64	1,025.36		1,025.36	10.15%	Reasonable gain obtained	21/07/2010	15/10/2010
DMX Tech	20,000	0.4550	9,100.00	0.425	8,500.00	-600.00	62.96	-662.96		-662.96	-7.29%	Based on 2/17 MA. Entry too rush.	14/10/2010	20/10/2010
ChinaGaoXian	30,000	0.1800	5,400.00	0.230	6,900.00	1,500.00	59.75	1,440.25		1,440.25	26.67%	Initial Target Reached	30/09/2010	29/10/2010
ChinaGaoXian	20,000	0.2000	4,000.00	0.230	4,600.00	600.00	57.87	542.13		542.13	13.55%	Satisfied with the profit	20/10/2010	29/10/2010
ChinaGaoXian	30,000	0.2300	6,900.00	0.240	7,200.00	300.00	60.67	239.33		239.33	3.47%	Wait for correction	04/11/2010	22/10/2010
Anchun	30,000	0.2300	6,900.00	0.190	5,700.00	-1,200.00	59.90	-1,259.90		-1,259.90	-18.26%	Stop Out. Poor entry point	04/11/2010	22/11/2010
			0.00		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.00%
			0.00		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.00%
			0.00		0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.00%
Total Realised:						10,180.00	1,109.31	9,070.69	0.00	9,070.69	7.40%

Trade Summary - Early August 2009

For the first 2-3 weeks of August, I was trading badly without much patience. Too eager to make the killing resulted in early entry where trend was not confirmed.

For this week's trade, I stared again with 5 new entries:

1. AscendasREIT - bought at 1.64. Buy signal.
2. CapitaMall - bought at 1.55 on buy signal.
3. Keppel Land - bought at 2.62 on buy signal.
4. Meiban - bought at 0.35 on buy signal break out. Could be false break out.
5. Wing Tai - bought at 1.75 on buy signal.


Here is the chart of Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust. The buy signal based on RSMA expert coupled with over sold situation and low MACD. The counter seemed to be moving along an uptrend channel. However, it has gone through many waves and potentially, it may be exhausted. If it breaks the bottom trend line, then, can exit quickly. If it breaks the upper trend line, then, there is potential for break out.

Trading Update - NOL, CapitaCom, SwingMedia, Mercator, Yanlord

NOL went up to 1.71 and then went down. The market looks bad last week. Sold off at 1.62 took some losses.

Swing Media was looking weak. Sold at 0.06 after getting devidend. Took some losses.

CapitaCom was down to 0.84. Hold. This counter was bought too early because Stochastic has not shown oversold.

Mercator was down to 0.32 broke cut loss point. Sold at 0.33. This counter is not showing strength. Also because Rickmers Marine is showing bad results and cutting dividends.

Bought Cosco on the counter trend trade at 1.20. Went up to 1.27 but retreated to 1.18. Sold at 1.23 since the counter does not show strength each time there is an up market. This counter could be weak again for some time.

Sold SembMar upon weakness. The counter showed sudden drop in price and continue to show down trend for another 2 days. Sold on bounce at 3.09.

Sold Yanlord at 2.39. Lost 0.01 plus transaction fee. Counter went down to 2.30 before bouncing back.

Overall last 2 weeks's trade was messed up by some greed in early entry resulting in unnecessary drawdowns. In order to go back to the rules and strategies, decided to sell off almost all and start afresh.

Trading update - UOL, COSCO, SwingMedia, Yanlord, Unifiber, NOL, etc

COSCO: Sold at 1.29 due to sell signal + Stochastic and RSMA Oscilator are trending down. Loss of 0.03.

UOL: Sold at 3.46 due to sell signal + Stochastic was neutral RSMA still positive. One of the reason is low volume. This makes the counter difficult to play as it requires larger margin in order to be able to sell at the price you want. It went on to move up to 3.64 etc. However, this is totally unexpected based on the chart. Loss of 0.07.

Unifiber: Bought at 0.06 and sold and 0.065 on contra. This counter was only for playing.

Swingmedia: Bought at 0.065. Tried to sell at 0.07 on contra but still holding. Dividend.

Capitacomm: Bought at 0.875 on RSMA buy signal. Stochastic still trending down. I think entry was too early and have to wait for longer.

Bought Yanlord at 2.40. Reason was that it was sold down from 2.82 to 2.40 within 3 days. But result announced was quite good. The sell down was probably due to Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Bought Mercator at 0.335 and 0.35. Selling has been done and seems to be subsided. So, there should be buyers coming in for the bargain soon.

Bought NOL at 1.63. Reason for buying was that it has gone through quite fast correction from 1.81 to 1.63 and at that level, the support seems strong previously.

GoldenAgri went on to move up to over 0.51 and higher. Which means that I had put too much money on the table because I failed to buy back on the immediate buy signal.

Trading update - Golden Agri

Sold half of the holdings on sell signal at 0.405 on market.
Queue (limit order) at 0.41. Yesterday close at 0.40 (stop loss point).
My RSMA expert showed sell signal. Also, last few trading session indicates moving away from upper line of Bollinger Band.
Decided to sell all later because the counter is extremely quite and all the transactions are extremely small. No big player in sight. Only small players playing with small lots of 1 lot to 10 lots.
In summary: Golden Agri Resource -> Good trade with 16.6% net gain (after all transaction fees) in 2 weeks.

Overall market seems to be soften for now. There could be some corrections coming soon. Whatever it is, I will still wait for the signals from the system.

Current holdings:
Cosco: bought at 1.32.
Sembmar: bought at 2.85
Olam: bought at 2.48
UOL: bought at 3.53

Sold Olam later at 2.51. This counter has not been showing a lot of strength. The overall market looks weak. There is a bid sell down today for no aparent reason. This might signal further weakness or correction. Overall market is over bought. Market is waiting for more data to be released. Decided to take a cautious approach.

On the hindsight, the selling of Golden Agri seemed unwarranted because it bounced up 0.02 to close at 0.425. That is almost 5% higher from the sold price. This indicates that the system is too aggressive in issuing signals. Another parameter is needed to control the signal or making decision. More research into this area is needed. Some solutions are:

The use of N maybe needed. For example, setting the stop at 2N to take higher risk?
The used support line?
Use of other indicators like RMO, Bollinger Bands?

Anyway, it is still too early to tell if the price of GoldenAgri will sustain. Let's see how it will move from here.

One of the big fear has been prices plunging through the cut loss point dramatically. This could result in taking too much risk and potentially losing everything in a short. The market is now very volatile and changes are fast and sometimes furious.