Trade Summary May 2011 SGX

Still struggling with the trades. Basically, sometimes, I just lose patience and make moves that only regret later. Essentially, I am still having trouble sticking to a system or should I say, still trying to figure out what is the most suitable system that I can adopt.

Trades Since 01-01-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	NetProfit	DIV	Tot Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
ComfortDelgro	5000	1.5400	1.480	-300.00	61.17	-361.17	140	-221.17	-2.87%	09/03/2011	19/05/2011
ComfortDelgro	5000	1.4700	1.480	50.00	61.00	-11.00	140	129.00	1.76%	09/05/2011	19/05/2011
CapitaLand	3000	3.1500	3.170	60.00	66.44	-6.44	180	173.56	1.84%	15/03/2011	19/05/2011
CapitaLand	2000	3.1000	3.170	140.00	59.87	80.13	120	200.13	3.23%	17/03/2011	19/05/2011
Wilmar	3000	5.1267	5.410	850.00	110.77	739.23	0	739.23	4.81%	05/05/2011	24/05/2011

The total REALIZED profit is S$1,020.75.
Well, I can say that, at least to console myself, it is a profitable month even though it is rather pathetic.

How did I do comparing to STI performance (excluding my Dividends)

Month Ended	Total Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	Vested	Chg	Port Perf	STI val	STI Perf
31/12/2010	107,021.21	98,120.00	8,901.21	91.7%			3212
31/01/2011	104,898.73	78,760.00	26,138.73	75.1%	-2.0%	-2.0%	3180	-1.0%
28/02/2011	104,988.58	18,350.00	86,638.58	17.5%	0.1%	-1.9%	3011	-6.3%
31/03/2011	104,999.09	67,770.00	37,229.09	64.5%	0.0%	-1.9%	3106	-3.3%
30/04/2011	105,604.51	24,650.00	80,954.51	23.3%	0.6%	-1.3%	3179	-1.0%
31/05/2011	104,639.94	59,330.00	45,309.94	56.7%	-0.9%	-2.2%	3159	-1.7%

Through out this year, my portfolio performed below par compared to STI. STI is down about 1.7% whereas my portfolio was down more than 2.2%. I am about 0.5% below par.

Looking back, since March this year, I had switched from S-Chip and Penny to STI counters. Buy trading STI counters, it is more difficult to beat the STI itself. However, this is a much lower risk method of trading. Trading in S-Chips and Penny will result is much better performance but carries a significantly higher risk.

One of my mistake was to stay in cash for too long in March and April while observing the market direction.

Right now, I notice many stock in SGX are showing down trend. I am not sure if this is going to persist for long. If this is just a short correction, I would move back into the market again. However, there is also a chance that this is a prelude to a more major problem to come. In stock market, anything can happen. One can only guess.

SGX Market Review April 2011

April 2011 was a bull run for SGX with index continuously moving upwards almost without any pause for more than 2 weeks. The move started in mid March and ended in Mid April gaining almost 10% within a month. This is the strongest since year 2011. It nearly recoup all the losses for the year. Last week's trading was almost all negative. Will this be a signal of the end of bull or a small pause to re-adjust itself?
Market seem to be announcing good news continuously. Will there by bad news after that? Will the impact of Japanese Tsunami be felt worldwide in the tech sector come June and July? I have no solid figures to look into these. I can only be guessing. To play safe, should I be staying at the sideline until July 2011?

Trade Summary April 2011

Here is a summary of my portfolio performance against the ST Index. Over the last 3 months, the STI has grown about 5% but my portfolio has only gone up by 0.7%. This is significantly lower.
The reason for the poor performance was due to the selling done in March 2011. This was done after observing the selling rules of seeing 3 black consecutive candles. Unfortunately, after selling the stocks move aggressively up. Resulting is difference of about about $3,965 of lost opportunities. Which translates into about 3.8%. Looking at this year's performance alone, I am lagging by about 0.3%. Due to the wrong moves in March and April. See table below for details.

Month Ended	Total Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	Vested	Chg	Port Perf	STI val	STI Perf
31/12/2010	107,021.21	98,120.00	8,901.21	91.7%	12.6%	21.3%	3212	16.8%
31/01/2011	104,898.73	78,760.00	26,138.73	75.1%	-2.0%	18.9%	3180	15.6%
28/02/2011	104,988.58	18,350.00	86,638.58	17.5%	0.1%	19.0%	3011	9.5%
31/03/2011	104,999.09	67,770.00	37,229.09	64.5%	0.0%	19.0%	3106	12.9%
30/04/2011	105,604.51	24,650.00	80,954.51	23.3%	0.6%	19.7%	3179	15.6%

Looking at the cause behind the lag in performance, I will have to review my selling strategy. I need to consider some additional factors before deciding to sell.

Trades Since 01-01-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	NetProfit	Tot Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
Wilmar	4000	5.2500	5.360	440.00	148.72	291.28	291.28	1.39%	18/03/2011	06/04/2011
StraitsAsia	5000	2.4400	2.590	750.00	88.13	661.87	661.87	5.43%	17/03/2011	15/04/2011
HL Asia	5000	2.8400	2.820	-100.00	99.17	-199.17	-199.17	-1.40%	01/04/2011	15/04/2011
SinoGrandness	20000	0.4700	0.555	1,700.00	71.84	1,628.16	1,628.16	17.32%	07/03/2011	18/04/2011
Rotary	5000	0.9600	0.990	150.00	58.46	91.54	91.54	1.91%	01/04/2011	18/04/2011
Rotary	5000	0.9600	0.985	125.00	58.44	66.56	66.56	1.39%	01/04/2011	18/04/2011

Net Realized profit for April 2011: $2,540.24. Very bad compared to the losses in March 2011.

Well, it is quite demoralizing to see your stock shoot up immediately after you sell. This is frustrating but, I think given the market condition, I can't really fault my decision. We can't see the future. We can only base our decision on what we see in the present and past. It is certainly very inaccurate to use past information to make decision on the future. Unfortunately, this is how it can be done. No way out. Now that I am only 76% vested, I can't really expect good performance unless the market is going to drop by a few %? That was I was expecting actually.
So, I need to seriously improve my trend reading skill even more.

STI Market Direction April 02, 2011

Here I am back again after struggling for about 10 days to rebuild my computer after its graphic card gave way. I was trying to restore from Dell Datasafe backup utility and it screwed up because it did not cater for video card crash situation. I ended losing my data.
OK. Let's get back to the main topic.
Last 2 weeks, the market showed strength and seemed to have forgotten about the Japanese nuclear crisis. It seems that the market has discounted all the bad news and bounced back aggressively. Now the STI is just sitting below the resistance line which also coincides with the down trend line's top.
So, next week will be deciding factor to see if it will continue to move up. 2 weeks ago, we were waiting for to see if the market will continue its down trend. It ended up bouncing back strongly forming a double bottom. But the market did not break the neck line of the double bottom. It closed just short of that. This gives us a hanging situation. Anything can happen over the weekend.

From the look of it, the market favors bull. So far, the sentiment seems positive and volume has increased. US released more positive data last week. All these macro economic factors pointing to more bulls.

Trade Summary for month ended March 31, 2011

This is a bad month. There has been panic selling due to Japan Nuclear Crisis.

Trades Since 01-03-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	NetProfit	Tot Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
Capitaland	5000	3.3200	3.350	150.00	116.87	33.13	33.13	0.20%	02/03/2011	07/03/2011
Noble	5000	2.2000	2.060	-700.00	74.64	-774.64	-774.64	-7.04%	02/03/2011	10/03/2011
Gallant	30000	0.3850	0.360	-750.00	78.32	-828.32	-828.32	-7.17%	02/03/2011	11/03/2011
MIDAS	10000	0.7650	0.675	-900.00	60.82	-960.82	-960.82	-12.56%	04/03/2011	16/03/2011
LeaderEnv	40000	0.2450	0.235	-400.00	67.28	-467.28	-467.28	-4.77%	09/03/2011	28/03/2011

Incurred a net loss of S$-5071.56.
However, there are some unrealized profits in there. So, the actual loss is not that severe. But then, we will only count the profit after they are realized. In fact, I made picked up some counters during the down period (as can be seen in the portfolio standing), taking this opportunity to switch from S-Chips to blue chips.

The main reason for such poor performance was panic selling. This is something to be avoided at all cost next time. In fact, there should be bargain hunting during major sell offs.

So, how did the portfolio stand against STI index as benchmark?

Overall, the STI index advanced over 3.5% but my portfolio remained at the same level. No advances nor retreat.
In that sense, my portfolio lags the index by 3.5% on March 2011 alone.
This is one of the problem with too active trading.

Panic selling is actually not wrong with panic selling. At least it protects yourself from the carnage of massive sell down. When there is major crash, the first part is selling. Followed by buying. I think I need to do better in the second part. That is buying after major sell off. The table below shows the actual numbers of the performance.

Month Ended	Total Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	Vested	Chg	Port Perf	STI val
28/02/2010	88,241.76	29,100.00	59,141.76	33.0%			2750
31/03/2010	81,884.82	37,210.00	44,674.82	45.4%	-7.2%	-7.2%	2887
30/04/2010	89,801.52	30,650.00	59,151.52	34.1%	9.7%	1.8%	2975
31/05/2010	81,884.82	37,210.00	44,674.82	45.4%	-8.8%	-7.2%	2753
30/06/2010	84,523.72	24,650.00	59,873.72	29.2%	3.2%	-4.2%	2836
31/07/2010	86,770.52	70,610.00	16,160.52	81.4%	2.7%	-1.7%	2988
31/08/2010	84,503.39	55,450.00	29,053.39	65.6%	-2.6%	-4.2%	2753
30/09/2010	89,778.20	47,150.00	42,628.20	52.5%	6.2%	1.7%	3098
31/10/2010	94,407.07	69,550.00	24,857.07	73.7%	5.2%	7.0%	3143
30/11/2010	95,045.95	60,200.00	34,845.95	63.3%	0.7%	7.7%	3145
31/12/2010	107,021.21	98,120.00	8,901.21	91.7%	12.6%	21.3%	3212
31/01/2011	104,898.73	78,760.00	26,138.73	75.1%	-2.0%	18.9%	3180
28/02/2011	104,988.58	18,350.00	86,638.58	17.5%	0.1%	19.0%	3011
31/03/2011	104,999.09	67,770.00	37,229.09	64.5%	0.0%	19.0%	3106

There has been some buying up during March as well. The current position including those bought today are as follows:

Stock Name Cash Holdings	Total Qty	Wgt Ave Price $	Last Done Price $	Unrealised P/L	Reason for Entry
Capitaland	5,000	3.130	3.300	850.00	Buy on panic sale
ComfortDelgro	5,000	1.540	1.570	150.00	MACD Cross Over
HL Asia	5,000	2.840	2.830	-50.00	Breakout double bottom
Rotary Engg	10,000	0.960	0.965	50.00	Breakout double bottom
SinoGrandness	20,000	0.470	0.550	1,600.00	Stochastic Over Sold
StraitsAsiaRes	5,000	2.440	2.550	550.00	Major Trend/Correction
Wilmar	2,000	5.040	5.470	860.00	Value/Panic Sale

March 2011 is trading month characterized by the Japan Earth Quake, Tsunami & Nuclear Crisis and the political unrest in North Africa and Middle East. Given such a negative backdrop, the stock market hardly fell. Not to mention crash. This somehow indicates the bullish sentiment. As such, I tried to take opportunity to buy into some counters that has dipped.

Moving forward, there is also a conscious effort from my part to focus more on blue chips and large cap stocks from Singapore and avoid China based S-Chips. Only selected S-Chips will be traded and for short term basis. There has been too many accounting scandals involving these companies.

I hope I will do better this month.

STI - Market had a good run up today

Today, the market had a good steady run taking up the first level resistance easily and closed above it comfortably. However, the volume seemed to be muted. Not very strong buying interest seen. The next few trading sessions will give us clearer picture of how the market will eventually move. Let's see if this is indeed the turning point for the market or just a pause.

High Probability of Market Down Trend 2011 Mar

I'd decided to take a closer look at the STI to see if there is anything that is useful from there.
Over the last 12 months, there has been 2 occasions where the STI is trying to move below the 200SMA. The first occurrence was in June 2010. This was quickly taken back with a strong rally of about 750 points until Nov 2010. The second occurrence was in Feb 2011. The recovery was not successful and resulted in recent sell down in Mar 2011 assisted by the natural disaster in Japan.

On the shorter term, since year 2011, the market has been embarking on a correction path.

Using Elliott Wave (I am not an expert on EW), we can say that it is Wave ABC, the correction path. That means, the next move will be reset to wave count 1 (EW1), which means resuming the upward climb. In that case, the magnitude of the climb could be around the size of previous pattern or around 750 (2650-3300) - a major move as seen from Jun 2010 to Nov 2010.
However, basing on the chart pattern, there is also a possibility of further down trend since the 3-month trend is down. Using trend line method, there are 3 important points to take note. One, the chart is making lower low and lower high in last 3 months. Two, it failed to break out from the resistance Level 2 during the last counter trend rally. Typically, a failed move will result in bigger move in the opposite direction. Three, it has recently broken the support Level 1 (now become resistance Level 1) with the help of Japanese Nuclear crisis and Tsunami. Of course, one can argue that event 3 cannot be counted since it is extraordinary event. The sell down is due to knee-jerk reaction. Market will quickly recover from there. If this is true, then, we will wait for next week to see if the market really recover and overcome resistance Level 1 easily and convincingly. If that happens, I think we can be convinced that this is Wave C and we will be having Wave Count 1 coming up.

In essence, next week will be a critical week to observe the direction. This will give us a clearer picture whether the recent sell down was due to knee-jerk reaction or the Japanese disaster was just and "excuse". If the latter is true, it means that the sell down will happen regardless of the Japanese disaster. To verify that, we need to see if the STI can clear the Level 1 resistance easily.

Key fundamental factors in STI:
1. IPO of GLP & HPH Trust - mopped up large portion of liquidity (-)
2. Economic still growing strong (+)
3. Valuation become less attractive to foreign funds - funds pull out (-)
4. Inflation fears (-)
5. China internal consumption increase (+)

There are positive as well as negative factors.

Looking back at the 2008 market crash, we may learn something from there.
Based on the 2007 pattern, the first warning sign happens between mid July to mid August 2007 where the market drop over 20% within one month. This was followed by very strong recovery over the next 3-4 months. Then, there is second major drop which saw similar pattern of over 20% decline within a month. Again, there is strong recovery which is short live this time. It lasted less than a month and it gave way again. Then next bounce we can call it dead cat bounce that lasted for just over a week. Then the down trend is confirm and there is no doubt about it anymore. To say that the 2008 crash came suddenly is not exactly accurate. It did give some signals along the way. We can only say that we did not notice those signals until after the fact. Given such a back drop, we may want to approach the next few weeks trading with more care and closer attention.