Trade Summary af of 2011-Sep-30

After doing some adjustments to the portfolio, I manage to recover some lost grounds against the Index. However, I am still waiting for the right time to enter the market and regain my advantage over the index. The target is to perform at least 10% above the index. Otherwise, it would be better to just buy ETF index.

Here is a summary of the performance:

Month Ended	Portfolio Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	DIV (Cum)	Vested	Chg	Portf Perf	STI Perf
31/12/2010	107,021	98,120	8,901		91.7%
31/01/2011	104,899	78,760	26,139		75.1%	-2.0%	-1.98%	-1.00%
28/02/2011	105,064	18,350	86,639	75.00	17.5%	0.2%	-1.83%	-6.26%
31/03/2011	105,074	67,770	37,229	75.00	64.5%	0.0%	-1.82%	-3.30%
30/04/2011	105,680	24,650	80,955	75.00	23.3%	0.6%	-1.25%	-1.03%
31/05/2011	105,155	59,330	45,310	515.00	56.4%	-0.5%	-1.74%	-1.65%
30/06/2011	104,714	73,430	30,644	640.00	70.1%	-0.4%	-2.16%	-2.58%
31/07/2011	102,452	83,260	18,552	640.00	81.3%	-2.2%	-4.27%	-0.72%
31/08/2011	91,117	40,640	48,230	2,247.50	44.6%	-11.1%	-14.86%	-10.18%
30/09/2011	88,928	49,840	36,840	2,247.50	56.0%	-2.4%	-16.91%	-15.97%

The poor performance in August and September was due to sudden drop in price of SIA and Ezra. This two counter experience drops of over 20% at one point. Other than that, the portfolio were quite able to coup with the index. For SIA, there was a dividend of 10% which was able to cushion off some of the effects.

Badly Bruised Stocks - 10% of 1000-Day High

Here is a list of stock trading at 10% or lower of their 1000 session highest high. HHV100 = Highest High based on 1000 trading sessions. HHVB = Highest high was x days before. Ratio = based on last close. % price of the HH. Just wonder any brave souls want to pick "value" stock from here.

Security Name	CLOSE	HHV1000	Vol_K	SMA200	HHVB	Ratio	Ticker Symbol
ADVANCE SCT LIMITED	0.017	1.190	0	0.016	997	1.43%	5FH
ADVANCED SYSTEMS AUTOMATION	0.002	0.060	15	0.003	975	3.33%	520
ADVENTUS HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.014	0.340	300	0.014	997	4.12%	5EF
ANNICA HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.015	0.295	15	0.017	998	5.08%	5AL
ASIAN MICRO HOLDINGS LTD	0.006	0.110	0	0.006	994	5.45%	585
AUSSINO GROUP LTD	0.039	0.400	0	0.048	942	9.75%	A15
CENTILLION ENV & RECYC LIMITED	0.002	0.070	1000	0.002	998	2.86%	C49
CHINA BEARING (SINGAPORE) LTD.	0.030	0.325	0	0.030	998	9.23%	AD7
CHINA ENERGY LIMITED	0.053	1.380	177	0.054	998	3.84%	A0G
CHINA ENERSAVE LTD	0.002	1.526	0	0.002	997	0.13%	5QT
CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL RES GP LTD	0.009	0.125	0	0.009	455	7.20%	M8J
CHINA HAIDA LTD.	0.019	0.275	0	0.020	987	6.91%	C92
CHINA HONGCHENG HOLDINGS LTD	0.038	0.470	0	0.034	997	8.09%	C0Z
CHINA HONGXING SPORTS LIMITED	0.115	1.310	0	0.115	997	8.78%	BR9
CHINA OILFIELD TEC SVCS GRPLTD	0.037	1.170	60	0.037	999	3.16%	DT2
CHINA SKY CHEM FIBRE CO., LTD.	0.098	2.410	0	0.088	997	4.07%	E90
CHINA SPORTS INTL LIMITED	0.053	0.896	405	0.050	974	5.92%	FQ8
CHINA SUN BIOCHEM TECH GP CO.	0.055	0.565	0	0.055	998	9.73%	C86
CHINA TITANIUM LTD.	0.005	0.264	201	0.004	998	1.89%	530
CHINA YONGSHENG LIMITED	0.007	0.160	0	0.007	999	4.38%	5KK
CHINESE GLOBAL INVESTORS GRP	0.013	0.220	0	0.015	961	5.91%	5CJ
DELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.340	3.610	0	0.330	901	9.42%	B1N
DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.001	0.020	705	0.001	988	5.00%	G77
DRAGON GROUP INTL LIMITED	0.036	0.488	2	0.040	999	7.38%	MT1
DUTY FREE INTERNATIONALLIMITED	0.230	2.600	0	0.213	973	8.85%	5SO
EASTGATE TECHNOLOGY LTD	0.033	0.550	1254	0.031	994	6.00%	N0L
ELEKTROMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED	0.007	0.085	0	0.008	999	8.24%	5KX
FASTUBE LIMITED	0.030	0.375	0	0.030	965	8.00%	5IH
FEDERAL INT(2000) LTD	0.035	0.513	1	0.037	998	6.82%	F20
FIBRECHEM TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	0.105	1.660	0	0.105	998	6.33%	F12
FRIVEN & CO. LTD.	0.028	0.340	0	0.029	999	8.24%	5RF
GEMS TV HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.010	0.570	0	0.009	999	1.75%	AM3
GUANGZHAO IND FOREST BIOGRPLTD	0.016	0.390	0	0.016	999	4.10%	G21
HANKORE ENVIRONMENT TEC GRPLTD	0.046	0.632	5706	0.045	950	7.28%	B22
INFINIO GROUP LIMITED	0.006	0.255	0	0.005	998	2.35%	5CS
JEL CORPORATION (HOLDINGS) LTD	0.010	0.240	0	0.007	830	4.17%	J16
JETS TECHNICS INTL HLDGS LTD	0.003	0.060	0	0.003	992	5.00%	J19
JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED	0.047	0.635	4751	0.034	999	7.40%	C8R
KLW HOLDINGS LTD	0.011	0.110	0	0.011	915	10.00%	504
KXD DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT LTD	0.010	0.115	0	0.010	998	8.70%	K07
LANKOM ELECTRONICS LIMITED	0.010	0.240	0	0.007	872	4.17%	L22
LERENO BIO-CHEM LTD.	0.003	0.101	300	0.003	998	2.97%	587
LOTTVISION LIMITED	0.013	0.300	206	0.011	997	4.33%	M22
LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.015	0.180	0	0.015	998	8.33%	L34
MACARTHURCOOK PROP SEC FUND	0.132	1.360	0	0.134	998	9.71%	A0P
MAGNUS ENERGY GROUP LTD.	0.010	0.120	340	0.012	997	8.33%	576
MDR LIMITED	0.003	0.075	0	0.003	995	4.00%	A27
MFS TECHNOLOGY LTD	0.052	0.570	442	0.063	999	9.12%	5BM
MOYA ASIA LIMITED	0.055	0.629	100	0.056	962	8.74%	5BT
NEXT-GEN SATELLITE COMM LTD	0.008	0.121	8233	0.011	999	6.61%	B07
OMEGA NAVIGATION ENT,INC.	0.350	28.500	0	0.360	994	1.23%	O57
OUHUA ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.038	0.475	0	0.036	998	8.00%	AJ2
PT BERLIAN LAJU TANKER TBK	0.027	0.301	144	0.027	962	8.97%	B66
RAFFLES EDUCATION CORP LTD	0.435	5.040	1879	0.436	998	8.63%	NR7
SEROJA INVESTMENTS LIMITED	0.192	2.000	0	0.194	551	9.60%	IW5
SINO TECHFIBRE LIMITED	0.090	1.350	0	0.090	998	6.67%	AD8
STAR PHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED	0.023	0.320	699	0.028	999	7.19%	X64
SUN EAST GROUP LIMITED	0.003	0.240	0	0.003	990	1.25%	Y35
SUNRAY HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.007	0.135	0	0.009	998	5.19%	S38
SUNSHINE HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.049	0.535	1610	0.045	999	9.16%	Y34
SYNEAR FOOD HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.132	2.350	3314	0.134	999	5.62%	Z75
TELEDATA (SINGAPORE) LTD	0.007	0.075	450	0.008	452	9.33%	T28
THE STYLE MERCHANTS LIMITED	0.003	0.130	0	0.003	986	2.31%	N37
TRANSCU GROUP LIMITED	0.050	0.663	0	0.050	951	7.54%	E15
TT INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.020	0.215	0	0.024	999	9.30%	T09
ULTRO TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	0.020	0.276	0	0.019	953	7.25%	U16
UNITED FIBER SYSTEM LIMITED	0.026	0.300	131	0.025	890	8.67%	P30
VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.029	0.296	1958	0.029	998	9.80%	545
VASHION GROUP LTD.	0.005	0.060	220	0.005	977	8.33%	5BA
WE HOLDINGS LTD.	0.006	2.930	242	0.007	999	0.20%	5RJ
YOUCAN FOODS INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.022	0.340	0	0.028	973	6.47%	Y06

Many of these are suspended due to accounting frauds. Book cooking are the common problems among the S-Chips (China based companies listed in SGX). This has cause much concerns among investors. However, some speculator seemed to welcome these. Good chance for them to punt on the volatility.

Badly Bruised Stocks - part II

Today I want to talk about these 2 counters in SGX:

Counter Name	CLOSE	HIGH	VOL	SMA20	DAYS AGO	Ratio to Peak	Symbol
CHINA ENERGY LIMITED	0.056	0.97	2043	0.0629	899	6%	A0G
CHINA SKY CHEM FIBRE CO., LTD.	0.089	1.56	3236	0.1036	898	6%	E90

Both of these counters are currently trading at about 6% of the Peak in 2007 (about 900 trading sessions ago). Both of these counters are S-Chip - China Company Listed in SGX. Imagine someone holding these two counters bought at that price. The kind of pain the investor suffer is understandable. This is a glaring example of not cutting losses. The old wisdom of letting profit run and cutting the losses short is never to be forgotten by any investor or trader. This is one of the most important lessons an investor should learn first.

If you cannot stick to this rule, you are unlikely to make much money unless you are a very lucky person. But now, is it worth to invest in these counters now? Since they are so cheap? In stock market, cheap can go cheaper. They can go trough share stocks consolidation to make it more feasible to trade.

Badly Bruised Stocks

The following counters are badly bruised. They are trading at 30% or lower from their 200 day peak:

Security Name	CLOSE	HHV200	Ratio	HHVB	Ticker Symbol
ADVANCED SYSTEMS AUTOMATION	0.003	0.010	30.00%	139	520
CENTILLION ENV & RECYC LIMITED	0.001	0.010	10.00%	179	C49
CHINA ENERSAVE LTD	0.003	0.020	15.00%	160	5QT
CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL RES GP LTD	0.012	0.075	16.00%	195	M8J
CHINA HONGCHENG HOLDINGS LTD	0.027	0.110	24.55%	169	C0Z
CHINA TITANIUM LTD.	0.004	0.015	26.67%	153	530
COMBINE WILL INTL HLDGS LTD	0.920	3.500	26.29%	183	N0Z
DAPAI INTL HLDG CO. LTD.	0.065	0.240	27.08%	161	FP1
FRIVEN & CO. LTD.	0.030	0.165	18.18%	154	5RF
GEMS TV HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.009	0.040	22.50%	144	AM3
GLOBAL TECH (HLDGS) LIMITED	0.004	0.015	26.67%	171	G11
GOLDTRON LIMITED	0.002	0.010	20.00%	94	536
GUANGZHAO IND FOREST BIOGRPLTD	0.020	0.105	19.05%	199	G21
ITE ELECTRIC CO LTD	0.030	0.100	30.00%	163	581
JEL CORPORATION (HOLDINGS) LTD	0.007	0.040	17.50%	139	J16
JETS TECHNICS INTL HLDGS LTD	0.003	0.015	20.00%	67	J19
JOYAS INTERNATIONAL HLDGS LTD	0.012	0.042	28.57%	178	E9L
LANKOM ELECTRONICS LIMITED	0.005	0.035	14.29%	144	L22
LINDETEVES-JACOBERG LTD	0.012	0.045	26.67%	152	L15
LONGCHEER HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.117	0.760	15.39%	191	L28
LOTTVISION LIMITED	0.011	0.045	24.44%	166	M22
MATEX INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.039	0.145	26.90%	174	M15
NAM CHEONG LIMITED	0.135	0.750	18.00%	100	N4E
OMEGA NAVIGATION ENT,INC.	0.400	1.800	22.22%	156	O57
RENEWABLE ENERGY ASIA GRP LTD	0.063	0.260	24.23%	161	5DW
SUN EAST GROUP LIMITED	0.005	0.025	20.00%	194	Y35
TELEDATA (SINGAPORE) LTD	0.009	0.030	30.00%	147	T28
THE STYLE MERCHANTS LIMITED	0.002	0.055	3.64%	167	N37
WE HOLDINGS LTD.	0.009	0.065	13.85%	198	5RJ
YOUCAN FOODS INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.030	0.100	30.00%	173	Y06

If you are thinking of bottom fishing, these are probably counters you can start to check on. However, I had listed them without considering their fundamentals. I simply use a software to filter them out without giving much thought to them. Usually, a broken stock remains broken until some major players decided to play them up or some fundamental change to the situation. A broken stock can remain broken for 2 -3 years or even longer depending on the situation and the management.

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)

There is a good article about investing in REITs. There is the link:

http://www.propwise.sg/how-to-invest-in-singapore-reits/

What should you take note of when investing in REITs?
1. Composition of REIT assets - Retail Malls, Hotels, Industrial, Residential, Logistic etc.
2. Geographic diversification and currency risk- Political, Natural disasters etc.
3. Growth of Dividend Per Unit (DPU) - How well they manage 4. Spread over 10 year Government Bond yield - Risk vs Yield comparison
5. Gearing -Leverage - ability to face financial crisis

This is one way to invest for income. Depending on your risk adversity, you can make your choices.

Trade Summary August 2011

August has been roller coaster for me. Things just did quite get into rhythm for me. I found myself not inline with the market. One of the biggest reason is that I was not exactly with the market. I was involved in a project that does not allow me to access the the market information for more than 3 weeks starting from the last week of July. This is the problem. These days, I am quite hesitate to take on new projects. Year 2009 was an example.

 

It has been quite frustrating for me. My counters broke the cut loss point and I didn't get to sell them. One of the problem is also the expectations. With too many analyst promoting the idea of QE3 or its equivalent, one would expect the market to remain stable. However, I believe it was these analyst's companies that are selling away their stocks. This is conspiracy theory but it is widely held true these days. The cycle is simple: the analyst promote buying. Their companies quietly liquidate their positions to retail investors. When they want to buy, the will call for selling so the the prices are depressed.

Moving forward, with the job data from US below expectation, the market is going to continue its volatility with inclination to the down side. Is this a good time to buy in? I don't know. Maybe the situation is not that bad and it will bounce back quickly. Or are we waiting for a real sovereign default to erupt and cause the whole market to panic before we see a real rally? I think we will know soon.

The Wild Swing to Continue in the Stock Market Worldwide

With USA market leading, the wild swings in the prices and indices is expected to continue for a while. With this back drop, I am expecting at least one sovereign default to take place before extreme measures will be implemented to stabilize the market. And my guess is Greece will be the bogey boy since its impact to other nations is among the smallest of all. Spain, Italy are too large. France is even larger. USA default means world economy collapse. Essentially, USA is "Safe".

It seems that we may not avoid the double dip after all. But the dip will be short lived. There will be immerse effort to blow up the bubble. Another much bigger bubble will be sharped in place to cover the current bubble. This seems to be the direction of how the world economy is moving towards to. As individual, we can't go against it. We can only trade along it. Even a country like USA or China can't fight this trend. The whole world is addicted to credit and spending future money. The addiction is too deep to ditch. Nobody is able to take the pain of curing.