STI - Market had a good run up today

Today, the market had a good steady run taking up the first level resistance easily and closed above it comfortably. However, the volume seemed to be muted. Not very strong buying interest seen. The next few trading sessions will give us clearer picture of how the market will eventually move. Let's see if this is indeed the turning point for the market or just a pause.

High Probability of Market Down Trend 2011 Mar

I'd decided to take a closer look at the STI to see if there is anything that is useful from there.
Over the last 12 months, there has been 2 occasions where the STI is trying to move below the 200SMA. The first occurrence was in June 2010. This was quickly taken back with a strong rally of about 750 points until Nov 2010. The second occurrence was in Feb 2011. The recovery was not successful and resulted in recent sell down in Mar 2011 assisted by the natural disaster in Japan.

On the shorter term, since year 2011, the market has been embarking on a correction path.

Using Elliott Wave (I am not an expert on EW), we can say that it is Wave ABC, the correction path. That means, the next move will be reset to wave count 1 (EW1), which means resuming the upward climb. In that case, the magnitude of the climb could be around the size of previous pattern or around 750 (2650-3300) - a major move as seen from Jun 2010 to Nov 2010.
However, basing on the chart pattern, there is also a possibility of further down trend since the 3-month trend is down. Using trend line method, there are 3 important points to take note. One, the chart is making lower low and lower high in last 3 months. Two, it failed to break out from the resistance Level 2 during the last counter trend rally. Typically, a failed move will result in bigger move in the opposite direction. Three, it has recently broken the support Level 1 (now become resistance Level 1) with the help of Japanese Nuclear crisis and Tsunami. Of course, one can argue that event 3 cannot be counted since it is extraordinary event. The sell down is due to knee-jerk reaction. Market will quickly recover from there. If this is true, then, we will wait for next week to see if the market really recover and overcome resistance Level 1 easily and convincingly. If that happens, I think we can be convinced that this is Wave C and we will be having Wave Count 1 coming up.

In essence, next week will be a critical week to observe the direction. This will give us a clearer picture whether the recent sell down was due to knee-jerk reaction or the Japanese disaster was just and "excuse". If the latter is true, it means that the sell down will happen regardless of the Japanese disaster. To verify that, we need to see if the STI can clear the Level 1 resistance easily.

Key fundamental factors in STI:
1. IPO of GLP & HPH Trust - mopped up large portion of liquidity (-)
2. Economic still growing strong (+)
3. Valuation become less attractive to foreign funds - funds pull out (-)
4. Inflation fears (-)
5. China internal consumption increase (+)

There are positive as well as negative factors.

Looking back at the 2008 market crash, we may learn something from there.
Based on the 2007 pattern, the first warning sign happens between mid July to mid August 2007 where the market drop over 20% within one month. This was followed by very strong recovery over the next 3-4 months. Then, there is second major drop which saw similar pattern of over 20% decline within a month. Again, there is strong recovery which is short live this time. It lasted less than a month and it gave way again. Then next bounce we can call it dead cat bounce that lasted for just over a week. Then the down trend is confirm and there is no doubt about it anymore. To say that the 2008 crash came suddenly is not exactly accurate. It did give some signals along the way. We can only say that we did not notice those signals until after the fact. Given such a back drop, we may want to approach the next few weeks trading with more care and closer attention.

Stock Trading at 25-50% of its 2007 peak

Here is a list of stocks that are trading at between 25% to 50% of their 2007 peak prices (see below). I had not really gone through each of them. Some of them could had been suspended or de-listed (by right these should not exist). It will take some time to evaluate their worth.

Security Name	HHV	LLV	CLOSE	Ratio%	Ticker Symbol
A-SONIC AEROSPACE LIMITED	0.221	0.019	0.065	30.52	A53
ABTERRA LTD	3.750	0.375	1.240	35.43	L5I
ACE ACHIEVE INFOCOM LIMITED	0.240	0.015	0.060	26.67	A75
ADDVALUE TECHNOLOGIES LTD	0.175	0.030	0.040	25.81	A31
ADV INTEGRATED MFG CORP LTD	0.435	0.035	0.115	28.40	A54
ADVANCED HOLDINGS LTD.	0.645	0.090	0.215	35.25	5IA
ALLGREEN PROPERTIES LTD	2.280	0.250	1.060	49.77	A16
ALLIED TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	0.147	0.018	0.065	48.87	A13
AMARA HOLDINGS LTD	0.890	0.145	0.420	48.84	A34
AP OIL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.420	0.070	0.160	40.00	5AU
ASIA POWER CORP LTD	0.415	0.110	0.145	37.66	A03
ASIAMEDIC LIMITED	0.150	0.030	0.045	33.33	505
ASIASONS WFG FINANCIAL LTD.	0.390	0.095	0.140	38.36	5EC
ASIATIC GROUP (HOLDINGS) LTD	0.250	0.035	0.075	34.09	5CR
ASIATRAVEL.COM HOLDINGS LTD	0.900	0.200	0.365	43.71	5AM
ASJ HOLDINGS LTD	0.220	0.016	0.045	25.14	538
ASL MARINE HOLDINGS LTD	1.362	0.250	0.595	45.80	A04
ASTI HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.320	0.045	0.090	29.51	575
AURIC PACIFIC GROUP LIMITED	1.660	0.440	0.635	39.20	A23
AVJENNINGS LIMITED	1.366	0.200	0.505	37.52	A05
AZEUS SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LTD.	0.210	0.040	0.075	37.50	A69
AZTECH GROUP LTD.	0.642	0.069	0.175	28.00	560
BAN LEONG TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	0.345	0.100	0.130	41.27	B26
BANYAN TREE HOLDINGS LIMITED	2.900	0.265	0.795	27.89	B58
BBR HOLDINGS (S) LTD	0.950	0.150	0.240	26.67	KJ5
BERGER INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.315	0.040	0.120	47.06	B64
BEST WORLD INTERNATIONAL LTD	1.112	0.144	0.255	25.58	5ER
BEYONICSTECHNOLOGY LIMITED	0.615	0.085	0.170	28.81	B19
BH GLOBAL MARINE LIMITED	0.630	0.140	0.250	43.10	B32
BRC ASIA LIMITED	0.310	0.075	0.135	45.76	B03
BROTHERS (HOLDINGS) LIMITED	0.410	0.050	0.160	41.56	G03
BUKIT SEMBAWANG ESTATES LTD	13.246	2.230	4.130	31.64	B61
CAMBRIDGE INDUSTRIAL TRUST	0.985	0.175	0.475	48.97	J91U
CAPITALAND LIMITED	7.132	1.700	3.140	44.79	C31
CAPITAMALL TRUST	3.526	0.935	1.710	49.41	C38U
CAPITARETAIL CHINA TRUST	3.340	0.405	1.220	38.61	AU8U
CDW HOLDING LIMITED	0.205	0.030	0.070	37.84	D38
CH OFFSHORE LTD	1.060	0.220	0.430	44.47	C13
CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES (F.E.) LTD	1.382	0.350	0.420	31.72	C05
CHEMOIL ENERGY LIMITED	0.965	0.100	0.315	34.24	AV5
CHINA AVIATION OIL(S) CORP LTD	3.190	0.480	1.250	42.00	G92
CHINA FARM EQUIPMENT LIMITED	0.880	0.055	0.250	29.24	A8J
CHINA FASHION HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.210	0.020	0.070	33.33	5FK
CHINA HEALTHCARE LIMITED	0.412	0.100	0.165	45.33	592
CHINA INTERNATIONAL HLDGS LTD	0.145	0.030	0.060	46.15	C37
CHINA PAPER HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.345	0.090	0.120	37.50	C71
CHIP ENG SENG CORPORATION LTD	1.078	0.125	0.450	45.05	C29
CHUAN HUP HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.460	0.135	0.215	48.31	C33
CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD NCCPS	2.700	0.835	1.150	42.59	C70
CITYSPRING INFRASTRUCT TRUST	1.219	0.381	0.525	43.35	A7RU
CNA GROUP LTD.	0.670	0.095	0.180	28.35	5GC
COUGAR LOGISTICS CORPN LTD	0.609	0.110	0.260	44.75	F86
COURAGE MARINE GROUP LIMITED	0.525	0.105	0.175	35.35	E91
CREATIVE MASTER BERMUDA LTD	0.295	0.030	0.120	46.15	C35
CREATIVE TECHNOLOGY LTD	9.950	2.380	3.430	35.18	C76
CSC HOLDINGS LTD	0.484	0.065	0.130	29.21	C06
ECOWISE HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.325	0.038	0.085	28.81	5CT
EZRA HOLDINGS LIMITED	3.606	0.307	1.680	49.66	5DN
F J BENJAMIN HOLDINGS LTD	0.786	0.100	0.350	45.99	F10
FABCHEM CHINA LIMITED	0.575	0.100	0.220	39.64	I54
FALCON ENERGY GROUP LIMITED	0.982	0.203	0.315	33.76	5FL
FDS NETWORKS GROUP LTD	0.150	0.010	0.040	27.97	F07
FISCHER TECH LTD	0.385	0.035	0.110	29.33	F22
FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.992	0.200	0.480	49.66	F03
FOOD JUNCTION HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.685	0.115	0.205	30.15	529
FREIGHT LINKS EXPRESS HOLDINGS	0.165	0.030	0.060	38.71	F01
FRIVEN & CO. LTD.	0.440	0.080	0.120	30.00	5RF
FU YU CORPORATION LTD	0.395	0.040	0.095	25.68	F13
FUJI OFFSET PLATES MFG LTD	0.830	0.160	0.270	33.54	508
G. K. GOH HOLDINGS LIMITED	1.550	0.405	0.635	42.62	G41
GALLANT VENTURE LTD.	1.450	0.060	0.365	26.64	5IG
GIKEN SAKATA (S) LIMITED	0.170	0.020	0.050	30.30	542
GLOBAL TECH (HLDGS) LIMITED	0.050	0.005	0.010	28.57	G11
GRAND BANKS YACHTS LIMITED	1.090	0.260	0.360	34.62	G50
GUL TECHNOLOGIES SINGAPORE LTD	0.185	0.020	0.085	50.00	G09
GUOCOLAND LIMITED	5.564	0.860	2.350	42.95	F17
GUOCOLEISURE LIMITED	1.800	0.215	0.750	45.45	B16
HARTAWAN HLDGS LTD	0.319	0.030	0.080	27.97	5FU
HEETON HOLDINGS LIMITED	1.170	0.150	0.450	40.54	5DP
HG METAL MANUFACTURING LTD	0.416	0.075	0.110	28.06	526
HIAP HOE LIMITED	0.970	0.048	0.400	42.55	5JK
HIAP SENG ENGINEERING LTD	1.203	0.120	0.470	41.05	510
HLH GROUP LIMITED	0.089	0.008	0.025	30.86	H27
HLN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	1.000	0.100	0.280	29.47	5HH
HONG FOK CORPORATION LTD	1.774	0.150	0.505	29.67	H30
HONGWEI TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	0.470	0.085	0.185	41.11	H80
HOSEN GROUP LTD	0.350	0.045	0.115	35.38	5EV
HOTEL PROPERTIES LTD	6.111	0.800	2.270	38.57	H15
HSR GLOBAL LIMITED	0.660	0.230	0.270	40.91	502
HUAN HSIN HOLDINGS LTD	0.725	0.190	0.215	30.07	H16
HUPSTEEL LTD	0.535	0.100	0.220	43.19	H73
INFORMATICS EDUCATION LTD.	0.225	0.015	0.100	47.62	I03
INTERNATIONAL PRESS SOFTCOM	0.205	0.035	0.055	28.21	571
INTERRA RESOURCES LIMITED	0.395	0.055	0.130	35.14	5GI
INTRACO LIMITED	0.665	0.130	0.280	44.44	I06
ISDN HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.515	0.080	0.140	27.67	I07
ITE ELECTRIC CO LTD	0.240	0.020	0.060	31.58	581
JACKS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.170	0.050	0.080	48.48	J11
JACKSPEED CORPORATION LIMITED	0.305	0.060	0.105	36.21	J17
JADASON ENTERPRISES LTD	0.265	0.030	0.090	36.73	J03
JAYA HOLDINGS LTD	2.050	0.185	0.520	25.87	J10
JUNMA TYRE CORD COMPANY LTD	0.355	0.030	0.140	43.08	5FJ
K-REIT ASIA	2.815	0.430	1.250	46.31	K71U
KINERGY LTD.	0.320	0.020	0.150	49.18	5JT
KOH BROTHERS GROUP LIMITED	0.645	0.075	0.190	30.40	K75
KSH HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.668	0.078	0.220	35.77	ER0
KYODO-ALLIED INDUSTRIES LTD	0.255	0.015	0.080	32.00	5BL
LAFE CORPORATION LIMITED	0.211	0.029	0.060	29.13	L05
LANTROVISION (S) LTD	0.106	0.015	0.030	31.25	5BH
LASSETERS INTL HOLDINGS LTD	0.473	0.064	0.180	39.30	5EL
LHT HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.215	0.035	0.080	39.02	L10
LIAN BENG GROUP LTD	0.820	0.090	0.280	35.67	L03
LINAIR TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	0.201	0.022	0.050	27.03	5FW
LIZHONG WHEEL GROUP LTD.	1.280	0.110	0.425	34.84	E94
LMA INTERNATIONAL N.V.	0.715	0.100	0.310	44.60	L24
LONGCHEER HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.855	0.210	0.255	31.48	L28
LORENZO INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.477	0.055	0.140	32.26	5IE
MACQUARIE INT'L INFRA FUND LTD	1.230	0.235	0.575	47.92	M41
MATEX INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.280	0.055	0.090	32.14	M15
MEDI-FLEX LIMITED	0.310	0.030	0.135	48.21	5FF
MEGHMANI ORGANICS LIMITED	0.560	0.060	0.185	40.66	M30
MEIBAN GROUP LTD	0.657	0.086	0.300	48.00	M24
METAL COMPONENT ENGG LTD	0.205	0.020	0.055	29.73	5DX
METAX ENGINEERING CORP LIMITED	0.300	0.070	0.070	26.42	5HV
MFG INTEGRATION TECHNOLOGY LTD	0.305	0.035	0.115	41.82	M11
MIDAS HLDGS LIMITED	2.340	0.250	0.680	29.69	5EN
MIYOSHI PRECISION LIMITED	0.315	0.055	0.095	34.55	M03
NATURAL COOL HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.411	0.130	0.185	48.78	5IF
NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LIMITED	5.780	0.768	1.950	35.11	N03
NH CERAMICS LTD	0.235	0.020	0.065	27.66	5AC
NIPPECRAFT LIMITED	0.185	0.030	0.050	28.57	N32
NTEGRATOR INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.059	0.014	0.020	33.90	5HC
OAKWELL ENGINEERING LIMITED	0.190	0.020	0.065	39.39	584
OCEAN SKY INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.330	0.030	0.125	42.37	O05
OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED	0.470	0.060	0.205	45.05	579
PACIFIC ANDES RESOURCES DEVLTD	0.720	0.082	0.325	46.43	P11
PACIFIC CENTURY REGIONAL DEVTS	0.420	0.130	0.185	44.58	P15
PAN HONG PROPERTY GROUP LTD	1.020	0.080	0.410	42.27	P36
PAN-UNITED CORPORATION LTD	1.072	0.315	0.490	46.58	P52
PENGUIN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.336	0.040	0.080	25.08	P13
PEOPLE'S FOOD HOLDINGS LIMITED	2.290	0.320	0.780	35.94	P05
PLATO CAPITAL LIMITED	0.668	0.101	0.160	26.36	5PI
PNE INDUSTRIES LTD	0.165	0.020	0.075	46.88	P07
POLLUX PROPERTIES LTD.	0.240	0.030	0.070	33.33	5AE
POPULAR HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.328	0.079	0.155	49.84	P29
PROGEN HOLDINGS LTD	0.190	0.020	0.065	35.14	583
PSC CORPORATION LTD	0.686	0.130	0.260	40.44	DM0
RADIANCE GROUP LIMITED	0.260	0.050	0.090	37.50	5DC
RENEWABLE ENERGY ASIA GRP LTD	0.515	0.035	0.185	39.36	5DW
ROWSLEY LTD.	0.336	0.023	0.090	32.73	A50
SAKAE HOLDINGS LTD.	0.445	0.090	0.190	44.71	5DO
SAMUDERA SHIPPING LINE LTD	0.520	0.120	0.200	39.22	S56
SANTAK HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.370	0.080	0.130	41.94	580
SAPPHIRE CORPORATION LIMITED	0.760	0.100	0.305	46.21	NF1
SC GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS LTD	3.405	0.295	1.340	40.53	D2S
SCINTRONIX CORPORATION LTD.	0.180	0.035	0.075	44.12	T20
SCORPIO EAST HOLDINGS LTD.	0.295	0.075	0.120	44.44	5HW
SHANGHAI TURBO ENTERPRISES LTD	0.230	0.030	0.085	41.46	X27
SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD	0.956	0.079	0.300	32.57	5CP
SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED	17.200	4.000	7.320	46.04	S68
SINGAPORE SHIPPING CORP LTD	0.485	0.120	0.220	47.83	S19
SINGXPRESS LAND LTD.	0.125	0.010	0.030	27.27	5CE
SINOBEST TECHNOLOGY HLDGS LTD.	0.270	0.035	0.110	44.90	T80
SINOMEM TECHNOLOGY LIMITED	1.640	0.050	0.680	43.31	S14
SINOPIPE HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.600	0.045	0.225	39.47	X06
SINWA LIMITED	0.715	0.050	0.210	32.01	5CN
SKY CHINA PETROLEUM SVCS LTD.	0.680	0.055	0.185	30.33	W81
SMB UNITED LIMITED	0.506	0.100	0.215	45.45	S16
STAMFORD TYRES CORPORATIONLTD	0.629	0.155	0.275	45.53	S29
STATS CHIPPAC LTD	1.404	0.202	0.675	48.84	S24
STRATECH SYSTEMS LIMITED	0.110	0.010	0.030	31.58	S73
STX PAN OCEAN CO., LTD.	42.400	6.000	10.680	26.57	GZ9
SUNLIGHT GROUP HLDG LTD	0.160	0.010	0.040	27.59	5AI
SUNNINGDALE TECH LTD	0.485	0.030	0.145	30.53	T35
SUNRIGHT LTD	0.530	0.075	0.185	35.92	S71
SUPERBOWL HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.520	0.085	0.245	49.00	S48
SWISSCO HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.880	0.060	0.230	28.22	5FD
TAI SIN ELECTRIC LIMITED	0.595	0.110	0.200	35.09	500
TEXCHEM-PACK HOLDINGS (S) LTD.	0.335	0.060	0.085	25.37	AI1
THAKRAL CORPORATION LTD	0.073	0.009	0.030	44.12	T04
TIONG WOON CORP HOLDING LTD	1.260	0.135	0.315	26.03	T06
TMC EDUCATION CORPORATION LTD	0.332	0.040	0.085	29.62	586
TOP GLOBAL LIMITED	0.054	0.003	0.015	34.88	519
TRANSVIEW HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.412	0.045	0.135	34.79	T19
TSH CORPORATION LIMITED	0.338	0.052	0.150	46.15	574
UNION STEEL HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.442	0.060	0.115	27.12	V69
UNITED FOOD HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.245	0.030	0.070	30.43	U01
UPP HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.339	0.051	0.130	41.01	U09
VICPLAS INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.285	0.035	0.090	35.29	569
WING TAI HLDGS LTD	3.562	0.518	1.410	40.74	W05
YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED	4.400	0.495	1.390	33.90	Z25
YING LI INTL REAL ESTATE LTD	1.230	0.055	0.370	31.90	5DM
YONGNAM HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.539	0.050	0.255	49.51	Y02

Stocks Trading at 25% of its 2007 peak or lower

Out of curiosity, I had mad a scan on a list of stocks trading at 25% or lower of its 2007 peak. I wonder if there is any good value stocks in there. Some of these could have been a goner. Some could had been suspended. Some are so inactive and low market cap that they may not worth a look. Over the next couple of weeks, I will have to spend time digging out each of the counters and see if there is any that is worth putting money in.

Security Name	HHV	LLV	CLOSE	Ratio%	Ticker Symbol
AA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.	0.300	0.040	0.045	20.93	5GZ
ADROIT INNOVATIONS LIMITED	0.150	0.010	0.020	14.81	A33
ADVANCE SCT LIMITED	1.220	0.025	0.045	3.87	5FH
ADVANCED SYSTEMS AUTOMATION	0.165	0.005	0.005	3.57	520
ADVENTUS HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.370	0.020	0.030	9.38	5EF
AEM HOLDINGS LTD	0.260	0.010	0.035	14.29	A10
ALBEDO LIMITED	0.225	0.035	0.040	19.05	5IB
AMPLEFIELD LIMITED	0.100	0.010	0.015	18.75	C60
ANNAIK LIMITED	0.525	0.075	0.100	20.62	A52
ANNICA HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.455	0.025	0.030	7.23	5AL
ANWELL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	1.867	0.140	0.340	20.82	G5X
ARMARDA GROUP LIMITED	0.445	0.015	0.080	20.51	5EK
ASIA ENVIRONMENT HOLDINGS LTD	0.944	0.055	0.215	23.37	A58
ASIA SILK HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.155	0.020	0.030	21.43	5GP
ASIA WATER TECHNOLOGY LTD.	0.354	0.021	0.065	19.12	5GB
ASIAN MICRO HOLDINGS LTD	0.165	0.010	0.010	6.45	585
AUSGROUP LIMITED	2.180	0.100	0.325	15.55	5GJ
AUSSINO GROUP LTD	0.460	0.075	0.090	20.69	A15
AUSTRALAND PROPERTYGROUP	12.500	0.975	2.900	23.20	K2X
AUTRON CORPORATION LIMITED	0.140	0.005	0.020	16.00	A19
BIO-TREAT TECHNOLOGY LIMITED	0.809	0.020	0.040	5.41	B22
BRIGHT ORIENT (HOLDING) LTD.	0.235	0.015	0.050	22.22	5DT
BRITISH & MALAYAN TRUSTEES LTD	50.000	5.550	5.550	11.56	B08
C&G ENV PROTECT HLDGS LTD	0.765	0.045	0.165	23.57	D79
CARRIERNET GLOBAL LTD	0.115	0.005	0.010	10.00	5BI
CELESTIAL NUTRIFOODS LIMITED	1.770	0.080	0.170	10.24	C56
CENTILLION ENV & RECYC LIMITED	0.220	0.005	0.005	2.44	C49
CHASEN HOLDINGS LIMITED	1.768	0.071	0.330	23.34	5NV
CHINA AUTO CORPORATION LTD.	0.175	0.010	0.035	23.33	A01
CHINA AUTO ELECTRONICS GRP LTD	0.830	0.030	0.115	15.03	T42
CHINA BEARING (SINGAPORE) LTD.	0.485	0.040	0.050	10.53	AD7
CHINA DAIRY GROUP LTD	0.555	0.045	0.085	15.89	T16
CHINA ENERGY LIMITED	1.930	0.075	0.100	5.41	A0G
CHINA ENVIRONMENT LTD.	0.765	0.060	0.180	24.83	5OU
CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL RES GP LTD	0.200	0.025	0.030	17.14	M8J
CHINA ESSENCE GROUP LTD.	1.210	0.090	0.260	23.01	G54
CHINA FLEXIBLE PACK HLDG LTD	0.580	0.100	0.120	21.43	C59
CHINA GREAT LAND HOLDINGS LTD.	0.260	0.015	0.030	12.50	D50
CHINA HAIDA LTD.	0.390	0.040	0.040	10.39	C92
CHINA HONGXING SPORTS LIMITED	1.450	0.055	0.115	8.39	BR9
CHINA KANGDA FOOD COMPANY LTD	0.590	0.085	0.085	15.89	P74
CHINA MILK PRODUCTS GROUP LTD	1.630	0.200	0.240	15.48	G86
CHINA POWERPLUS LIMITED	0.445	0.030	0.045	10.47	Z02
CHINA SKY CHEM FIBRE CO., LTD.	2.740	0.120	0.155	6.13	E90
CHINA SUN BIOCHEM TECH GP CO.	0.765	0.045	0.055	7.43	C86
CHINA TITANIUM LTD.	0.439	0.005	0.010	2.79	530
CHINA YONGSHENG LIMITED	2.050	0.005	0.015	0.73	5KK
CHINASING INVESTMENT HLDG LTD	0.077	0.005	0.005	7.25	C16
CHINAVISION MEDIA GRP LIMITED	4.050	0.320	0.800	20.00	S91
CHINESE GLOBAL INVESTORS GRP	0.450	0.020	0.045	10.84	5CJ
CHT (HOLDINGS) LTD.	0.710	0.025	0.110	15.71	C36
COMMUNICATION DESIGN INTL LTD	0.455	0.045	0.045	10.23	5HT
COMPACT METAL INDUSTRIES LTD	0.046	0.005	0.005	11.90	C02
CONTEL CORPORATION LIMITED	0.290	0.005	0.030	11.54	F75
COSCO CORPORATION (S) LTD	7.961	0.587	1.810	23.90	F83
CPH LTD	0.080	0.005	0.010	15.87	539
CRAFT PRINT INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.137	0.025	0.025	19.61	541
DARCO WATER TECHNOLOGIES LTD	0.435	0.035	0.065	16.05	5CB
DELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED	4.020	0.345	0.420	10.82	B1N
DEVOTION ENERGY GROUP LIMITED	0.510	0.035	0.070	14.29	D08
DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.070	0.005	0.005	8.33	G77
DRAGON GROUP INTL LIMITED	0.516	0.055	0.055	10.83	MT1
E3 HOLDINGS LTD.	0.155	0.005	0.005	4.00	5AJ
EASTGATE TECHNOLOGY LTD	0.058	0.002	0.005	9.26	E05
ELLIPSIZ LTD	0.941	0.023	0.115	12.67	E13
EMS ENERGY LIMITED	0.283	0.020	0.040	15.38	5DE
ENVIRO-HUB HOLDINGS LTD	0.528	0.051	0.120	23.72	L23
EQUATION CORP LIMITED	0.304	0.015	0.040	15.94	532
ESMART HOLDINGS LIMITED	5.000	0.200	0.320	8.65	5SO
EUCON HOLDING LIMITED	0.200	0.010	0.030	16.22	E27
EUNETWORKS GROUP LIMITED	0.192	0.008	0.015	8.57	H23
EUROPTRONIC GROUP LTD	0.146	0.016	0.025	18.10	E23
EXCELPOINT TECHNOLOGY LTD	0.270	0.020	0.055	21.57	E17
FASTUBE LIMITED	0.530	0.045	0.065	13.54	5IH
FEDERAL INT(2000) LTD	0.585	0.038	0.055	10.04	F20
FIBRECHEM TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	1.900	0.100	0.105	5.90	F12
FIRST SHIP LEASE TRUST	1.686	0.320	0.400	24.57	D8DU
FIRSTLINK INV CORP LTD	0.179	0.010	0.010	5.92	S82
FRASERS COMMERCIAL TRUST	3.625	0.360	0.750	22.06	ND8U
FUNG CHOI MEDIA GROUP LIMITED	0.770	0.045	0.165	22.76	F11
GEMS TV HOLDINGS LIMITED	1.800	0.005	0.030	1.71	AM3
GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED	1.161	0.041	0.145	12.79	B73
GLOBAL TESTING CORPORATION LTD	0.360	0.035	0.070	20.59	G31
GLOBAL YELLOW PAGES LIMITED	0.679	0.061	0.155	23.13	Y07
GOLDTRON LIMITED	0.030	0.005	0.005	18.52	536
GUANGZHAO IND FOREST BIOGRPLTD	0.465	0.030	0.060	14.63	G21
HL GLOBAL ENTERPRISES LIMITED	0.590	0.025	0.070	12.84	L18
HOR KEW CORPORATION LIMITED	0.340	0.030	0.060	20.76	H06
HUP SOON GLOBAL CORP LTD	1.800	0.040	0.145	8.53	5JY
INFINIO GROUP LIMITED	0.430	0.005	0.010	2.60	5CS
INNO-PACIFIC HOLDINGS LTD	0.082	0.010	0.010	14.71	I26
INNOVALUES LIMITED	0.900	0.035	0.100	12.27	591
INTERNET TECHNOLOGY GRP LTD	0.140	0.015	0.030	25.00	I14
IPCO INT'L LIMITED	0.135	0.015	0.015	13.64	I11
JAPAN LAND LIMITED	1.900	0.125	0.265	15.14	C7B
JASPER INVESTMENTS LIMITED	0.875	0.055	0.060	8.00	FQ7
JEL CORPORATION (HOLDINGS) LTD	0.316	0.005	0.030	10.27	J16
JEP HOLDINGS LTD.	0.584	0.017	0.035	7.90	5FA
JETS TECHNICS INTL HLDGS LTD	0.125	0.005	0.010	9.09	J19
JIUTIAN CHEMICAL GROUP LIMITED	0.820	0.025	0.065	8.67	C8R
KEPPEL TELE & TRAN	5.900	0.680	1.270	22.05	K11
KLW HOLDINGS LTD	0.200	0.005	0.010	5.41	504
KODA LTD	1.030	0.085	0.125	12.76	5BK
KOYO INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.680	0.040	0.050	8.33	5OC
KS ENERGY SERVICES LIMITED	4.295	0.460	0.900	21.64	578
KXD DIGITAL ENTERTAINMENT LTD	0.200	0.005	0.010	5.41	K07
L.C.DEVELOPMENT LTD	0.590	0.064	0.125	22.98	L38
LANKOM ELECTRONICS LIMITED	0.380	0.025	0.030	9.09	L22
LERENO BIO-CHEM LTD.	0.168	0.003	0.005	3.33	587
LIANG HUAT ALUMINIUM LTD	0.520	0.009	0.015	3.46	C4P
LIFEBRANDZ LTD.	0.083	0.005	0.010	13.33	L20
LINDETEVES-JACOBERG LTD	0.170	0.010	0.030	18.75	L15
LOTTVISION LIMITED	0.725	0.025	0.030	4.48	M22
LUXKING GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.215	0.020	0.020	10.00	L34
LUZHOU BIO-CHEM TECHNOLOGY LTD	0.750	0.050	0.085	11.56	L46
M DEVELOPMENT LTD.	0.145	0.010	0.030	24.00	N14
MACARTHURCOOK PROP SEC FUND	1.424	0.060	0.125	8.78	A0P
MAGNUS ENERGY GROUP LTD.	0.210	0.015	0.020	10.00	576
MDR LIMITED	0.115	0.005	0.005	5.26	A27
MEMSTAR TECHNOLOGY LTD.	0.350	0.015	0.050	20.00	5MS
MFS TECHNOLOGY LTD	1.060	0.100	0.150	14.29	5BM
MIRACH ENERGY LIMITED	0.541	0.015	0.095	18.30	C68
MOYA DAYEN LIMITED	0.644	0.023	0.060	9.79	5BT
NEL GROUP LTD.	0.225	0.015	0.040	19.05	597
NET PACIFIC FIN HLDGS LTD	0.280	0.030	0.040	14.29	5QY
NEW LAKESIDE HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.170	0.015	0.020	13.33	5EG
NEW WAVE HOLDINGS LTD.	0.074	0.005	0.010	16.67	5FX
NEXT-GEN SATELLITE COMM LTD	0.254	0.005	0.040	19.23	B07
NICO STEEL HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.400	0.035	0.090	22.96	5GF
OCEAN INT'L HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.125	0.005	0.010	8.70	O30
OMEGA NAVIGATION ENT,INC.	36.000	1.410	1.410	3.92	O57
ONIONTECH LIMITED	0.190	0.020	0.035	18.92	5HG
ORIENTAL CENTURY LIMITED	1.430	0.135	0.155	12.20	5II
OUHUA ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.755	0.040	0.070	9.72	AJ2
PACIFIC HEALTHCARE HLDGS LTD	0.459	0.015	0.105	23.60	P47
PHARMESIS INTERNATIONAL LTD.	0.240	0.025	0.045	20.45	P31
PLASTOFORM HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.240	0.010	0.015	6.82	P82
PT BERLIAN LAJU TANKER TBK	0.323	0.033	0.050	17.06	B66
PTERIS GLOBAL LIMITED	1.191	0.083	0.160	14.05	J74
RAFFLES EDUCATION CORP LIMITED	1.700	0.235	0.255	15.45	E6D
ROTOL SINGAPORE LIMITED	0.215	0.020	0.020	9.76	R10
SEE HUP SENG LIMITED	0.948	0.113	0.180	19.87	566
SELECT GROUP LIMITED	0.880	0.100	0.125	15.15	5FQ
SEROJA INVESTMENTS LIMITED	2.000	0.245	0.265	13.25	IW5
SING HOLDINGS LIMITED	1.282	0.100	0.305	24.92	5IC
SINO TECHFIBRE LIMITED	1.770	0.055	0.090	5.33	AD8
SINO-ENVIRONMENT TECH GRP LTD	4.020	0.055	0.135	3.67	Y62
SITRA HOLDINGS (INTL) LIMITED	0.535	0.050	0.060	12.50	5LE
SKY ONE HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.580	0.020	0.030	5.77	5MM
SM SUMMIT HOLDINGS LTD	0.595	0.060	0.145	24.37	S43
SPICE I2I LIMITED	0.373	0.036	0.060	17.19	M09
ST. JAMES HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.381	0.070	0.075	22.66	5NH
STAR PHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED	0.615	0.030	0.075	12.40	X64
SUN EAST GROUP LIMITED	0.340	0.005	0.010	3.08	Y35
SUNMOON FOOD COMPANY LIMITED	0.025	0.005	0.005	25.00	F06
SUNRAY HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.260	0.010	0.020	8.33	S38
SUNSHINE HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.550	0.005	0.050	9.62	Y34
SURFACE MOUNT TECH (HLDGS) LTD	0.505	0.035	0.085	17.89	S57
SWIBER HOLDINGS LIMITED	3.840	0.235	0.765	20.79	AK3
SWING MEDIA TECHNOLOGY GRP LTD	0.174	0.033	0.040	25.00	5BQ
SYNEAR FOOD HOLDINGS LIMITED	2.520	0.110	0.150	6.38	Z75
TAT HONG HOLDINGS LTD	3.500	0.365	0.800	23.95	T03
TELEDATA (SINGAPORE) LTD	0.100	0.005	0.015	18.75	T28
THE LEXICON GROUP LIMITED	0.212	0.010	0.020	10.36	5KX
THE STYLE MERCHANTS LIMITED	0.190	0.013	0.030	17.65	N37
TRANSCU GROUP LIMITED	0.714	0.055	0.060	9.79	E15
TT INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	0.354	0.015	0.040	12.05	T09
ULTRO TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	0.288	0.020	0.030	11.36	U16
UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS HLDGLTD	0.170	0.020	0.040	25.00	U18
UNIONMET (SINGAPORE) LIMITED	0.468	0.017	0.060	13.51	A6F
UNITED FIBER SYSTEM LIMITED	0.345	0.015	0.045	13.85	P30
VALLIANZ HOLDINGS LIMITED	0.386	0.026	0.050	14.04	545
VAN DER HORST ENERGY LIMITED	0.560	0.095	0.120	22.43	595
VASHION GROUP LTD.	0.095	0.005	0.010	13.33	5BA
VGO CORPORATION LIMITED	0.160	0.010	0.035	25.00	E09
WESTECH ELECTRONICS LIMITED	3.910	0.040	0.055	1.52	5RJ
XPRESS HOLDINGS LTD	0.230	0.040	0.050	24.39	I04
YOMA STRATEGIC HOLDINGS LTD	0.370	0.045	0.075	21.74	Z59
YOUCAN FOODS INTERNATIONAL LTD	0.380	0.050	0.055	14.86	Y06
ZHONGHUI HOLDINGS LTD.	0.450	0.010	0.010	2.33	Z04

Market Performance After 2008 Crash

Just had a simple look into the market performance after the 2008 financial crisis triggered from US sub-prime mortgage problem. There are the comparisons between Asian markets with Dow Jones:

Index	2007-Peak	2008/9-Low	2009-End	2010-End	Current
SSE	100.00	27.21	53.55	45.88	47.48
STI	100.00	37.25	73.71	82.23	75.14
HK-HS	100.00	33.78	68.02	72.77	70.56
JP-Nikkei	100.00	38.22	57.63	55.90	50.31
DOW	100.00	46.00	74.46	81.67	83.71

The values are expressed in percentage using the 2007 peak values as 100%.
Since the crisis initiated from US, one would expect the Dow to be most affected by the crisis. Instead it was SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) that was worst hit. In terms of recent recovery, there were so much talk about China leading the world market in the economic recovery from the crisis. Instead, Dow was the best performer and SSE was the worst performer among these markets.

Plotting them on a simple graph for comparison. It can be seen that both SSE and Nikkei were the worst performers. However, we need to take into consideration of the recent drop in Nikkei due to natural disaster. Discounting that could have brought them back up by 10%. But still, they are the second worst performer in Asia.

The fact that SSE is not performing as expected is slightly worrying. One thing we can assume is that the SSE is extremely over priced in 2007 and now it is more reasonable priced. However, if the market in China is really good, why shouldn't it be over priced? Isn't the market suppose to chase after promising counters and ditch the unattractive counters? I thought market is always over bought on bullish sector and oversold on bearish sector. Maybe I am over paranoid. One other explanation is the QE by Fed really flooded the US market with liquidity causing the price to be overvalued. Another angle to look at it is the value of US dollar. How much has it depreciated against other currencies? Is SSE a victim of stronger currency? What about Nikkei and others?

Modified: 20-Mar-2011.
After the Nuclear crisis in Japan, the Yen shot up and the G7 work together to bring it down. A strong Yen will hurt Japanese economy more at a time when they desperately needed a weaker currency to build up their internal economy.

With a weaker Yen, there will be impact on the US economy and may cause bigger US trade deficit. The US has to again release more liquidity into the market by QE (3) and potentially will hurt China's export. So, what will China do in response? Will China take the reverse role with US by significantly increasing local consumption? How ready is China's economy to do that? How much real purchasing power do China have?

Is the market preparing for major descent?

As I review through the index components of STI, I noticed that most of the counters had been experiencing corrections of about 20% over the last 3-4 months. Most of them are now trading below the 200-period moving average. Comparing this scenario with end of 2007, I am trying to figure out whether there is any sign of break down.

In 2007, the run up to the crash was a super bull run from 2004 and punctuated by 2006 correction and 2007 correction. The last leg was extremely strong followed by rapid correction then crashes.

There are 3 pairs of patterns where prices move below 200-period moving average during bull run. I call them pattern 1, 2 and 3 (see picture). Pattern 1 was a false warning. It resulted in super bull run in 2006/2007. Pattern 2 was the real warning. It resulted in 2008 crash. The million dollar question is whether this pattern is real warning?

A check on each of the component stocks reveals that majority of them (about 25/30) are trading below 200-period moving average now. Some of the started the down trend 6 months ago while other 3 months ago. For those stocks that are still sitting on top of the 200-period moving average, they are on the down trend also. How long this down trend will persist is anyone's guess. If the current situation persists, this may result in a slow grind to the bottom.

In essence, the major trend of the market has actually turn negative and has persisted for more than 3 months. The major macroeconomic factor seem to support such trend. If the macroeconomic factors persists for another 3 months, the trend should be confirm and we should expect further down side.

Monthly Trading Standing

Putting myself into the line by exposing my trade performance. Tracking performance is very importance if you are serious about trading and investing. If you lose picture of your real performance, you are not going to make serious money.
The key measurement is the index performance. I think I need to track the index as well.
Looking at the normalized STI index (month's closing value) against my portfolio, I realized that my performance is actually ahead of the STI index stocks. (I had previously posted a calculation that showed STI increase by 31% from Feb 2010 to Feb 2011)

Before I come up with this method of measurement, I had no idea of how I actually perform against the major index. When I saw my portfolio increase by 18% over the last one year, I thought I was doing all right. I felt quite satisfied with that number. When I told my friend about my performance, he thought that I was on the right track because he obviously did worse than I do. I was happy for a while. But I had no idea whether I really out perform the Index.
Then I decided to get serious and try to normalized the STI index using my initial portfolio value and make comparison neck-to-neck. I realized that I am on the right track.

Month Ended	Total Value	Equity Value	Cash Value	Vested	Chg	Port Perf	ST Index
28/02/2010	88,241.76	29,100.00	59,141.76	33.0%			2750
31/03/2010	81,884.82	37,210.00	44,674.82	45.4%	-7.2%	-7.2%	2887
30/04/2010	89,801.52	30,650.00	59,151.52	34.1%	9.7%	1.8%	2975
31/05/2010	81,884.82	37,210.00	44,674.82	45.4%	-8.8%	-7.2%	2753
30/06/2010	84,523.72	24,650.00	59,873.72	29.2%	3.2%	-4.2%	2836
31/07/2010	86,770.52	70,610.00	16,160.52	81.4%	2.7%	-1.7%	2988
31/08/2010	84,503.39	55,450.00	29,053.39	65.6%	-2.6%	-4.2%	2753
30/09/2010	89,778.20	47,150.00	42,628.20	52.5%	6.2%	1.7%	3098
31/10/2010	94,407.07	69,550.00	24,857.07	73.7%	5.2%	7.0%	3143
30/11/2010	95,045.95	60,200.00	34,845.95	63.3%	0.7%	7.7%	3145
31/12/2010	107,021.21	98,120.00	8,901.21	91.7%	12.6%	21.3%	3212
31/01/2011	104,898.73	78,760.00	26,138.73	75.1%	-2.0%	18.9%	3180
28/02/2011	104,988.58	18,350.00	86,638.58	17.5%	0.1%	19.0%	3011
31/03/2011	104,508.77	46,650.00	57858.77	44.6%	-0.5%	18.4%	3061

So, what's next?
The key now is to continue to out perform and improve on my performance if possible. Instead of 18% annual return, now, try to target 30% annualized return.

Trading Rules

It is not easy to be discipline. I had fallen into the trap many times. The latest was Renewable Energy. I suffer a loss of 26% which is way above my usual cut loss point of 12%. Another counter was Mun Siong. Also suffer losses of 18%. I finally decided to sell them off and focus my effort on more promising counters. These were the highest losses I took for this year. My short term trade usually has a cut off point of a few ticks below the support or 3-4 consecutive black bars and down trend.
Even though I expected the price will recover soon, I still take losses. For example, CapitaMallAsia (CMA), I decided to sell away at 10% losses even though I thought it will re-bounce soon.

Stock Trading Results Feb 2011

Here is the results:
Most of the counters were sold during the correction. Some of the counters suffered more than expected losses due to procrastination. That means failure to follow my own rules. Overall, the result was below satisfaction particularly failing to cut losses according to the 10% rules.

TRADE CLOSED IN FEBRUARY 2011

Trades Since 01-Feb-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	Profit	Net Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
UniFood	100000	0.0850	0.075	-1,000.00	61.63	-1,061.63	-1,061.63	-12.49%	10/02/2011	15/02/2011
SinoGrandness	40000	0.4250	0.565	5,600.00	138.77	5,461.23	5,461.23	32.12%	22/10/2010	15/02/2011
STX PO	1000	13.1600	12.000	-1,160.00	88.17	-1,248.17	-1,248.17	-9.48%	09/12/2010	16/02/2011
UETF SSE 50	5000	1.9500	2.000	250.00	69.21	180.79	180.79	1.85%	01/02/2011	22/02/2011
RenewableEne	40000	0.2550	0.190	-2,600.00	66.36	-2,666.36	-2,666.36	-26.14%	17/01/2011	22/02/2011
CapitaMallAsia	5000	1.9300	1.750	-900.00	65.01	-965.01	-965.01	-10.00%	01/12/2010	23/02/2011

NET PROFIT/LOSS = $-299.15
Moving forward, I hope to be more discipline and follow my own rules more strictly. On top of that, there is also a need to look into improving the trading rules. What are they? Where to modify? Not finalized yet.

TRADE CLOSED IN JANUARY 2011

Trades Since 01-01-2011	Qty.	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Fees	Profit	Net Profit	% ROI	Bought	Sold
Delong	20000	0.5100	0.570	1,200.00	75.69	1,124.31	1,124.31	11.02%	06/12/2010	04/01/2011
UETF 50 SSE	5000	2.0700	2.080	50.00	72.71	-22.71	-22.71	-0.22%	21/07/2010	13/01/2011
China Sky Chem	50000	0.2500	0.255	250.00	88.48	161.52	161.52	1.29%	29/09/2009	13/01/2011
ComfortDelgro	5000	1.4700	1.630	800.00	61.38	738.62	738.62	10.05%	03/11/2010	14/01/2011
China Sky Chem	50000	0.1850	0.250	3,250.00	76.22	3,173.78	3,173.78	34.31%	01/12/2010	14/01/2011
China Sky Chem	50000	0.2000	0.240	2,000.00	77.09	1,922.91	1,922.91	19.23%	06/12/2010	17/01/2011
FalconEnergy	40000	0.4600	0.485	1,000.00	132.46	867.54	867.54	4.71%	10/12/2010	27/01/2011

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS = $+7965.97