Sunday, July 31, 2011

Trade Summary July 2011

July is a really bad month. It was hit by 2 unexpected events. One is the Ezra sudden fall by over 20% over 3 days because of poor results and another by SIA falling by 3.7% overnight. The combination of 2 counters accounted for 3.5% loss in the overall portfolio. The counter trend trade on NOL also did not work out. That accounted for another 0.5% loss in the overall portfolio. SMRT drop due to poor outlook also provided another 0.2% negative impact.

The month started rather positively with overall gain of about 2.5% and ended with an overall lost of 1.5%. Total draw down within the month is almost 4%. In a month that looks very promising at the beginning and ended with disappointing results.

Month EndedPortfolio ValueEquity ValueCash ValueDIV (Cum)VestedChgPortf PerfSTI Perf
31/12/2010107,021.2198,120.008,901.21
91.7%


31/01/2011104,898.7378,760.0026,138.73
75.1%-2.0%-1.98%-1.00%
28/02/2011105,063.5818,350.0086,638.5875.0017.5%0.2%-1.83%-6.26%
31/03/2011105,074.0967,770.0037,229.0975.0064.5%0.0%-1.82%-3.30%
30/04/2011105,679.5124,650.0080,954.5175.0023.3%0.6%-1.25%-1.03%
31/05/2011105,154.9459,330.0045,309.94515.0056.4%-0.5%-1.74%-1.65%
30/06/2011104,713.7573,430.0030,643.75640.0070.1%-0.4%-2.16%-2.58%
31/07/2011102,789.0283,260.0018,551.52977.5081.0%-1.8%-3.95%-0.72%



The market is always unpredictable. We need to live with it. July was a month with many negative financial news. Firstly, the Greek sovereign default and now the US debt ceiling. Even though the US debt ceiling is essentially non-event, the lack of economic growth is casting an extremely dark shadow on the investors worldwide. With the US unemployment potentially climbing up again, investors are looking else where to put their money. Gold is making new highs. Oil is not going too much higher partly because the US are selling part of their reserves.

Moving forward, it is more prudent not to take any counter trend trades. Even though the potential for achieving larger gains, the risk is much higher. The chance of success is below 50% and it is not worth taking such risks.

Friday, July 8, 2011

Trade Summary June 2011

After some miserable months, June starts to look a little better. But again, some silly mistakes were made when trying to optimize the portfolio. At times, over balancing is in fact counter productive. More patience is need for events to unfold and things to play out. Too much fear gets in the way for higher profits. The portfolio performance is slightly above the STI performance.

Month EndedPortfolio ValueEquity ValueCash ValueDIV (Cum)VestedChgPortf PerfSTI Perf
31/12/2010107,021.2198,120.008,901.21
91.7%


31/01/2011104,898.7378,760.0026,138.73
75.1%-2.0%-1.98%-1.00%
28/02/2011105,063.5818,350.0086,638.5875.0017.5%0.2%-1.83%-6.26%
31/03/2011105,074.0967,770.0037,229.0975.0064.5%0.0%-1.82%-3.30%
30/04/2011105,679.5124,650.0080,954.5175.0023.3%0.6%-1.25%-1.03%
31/05/2011105,154.9459,330.0045,309.94515.0056.4%-0.5%-1.74%-1.65%
30/06/2011104,713.7573,430.0030,643.75640.0070.1%-0.4%-2.16%-2.58%

The portfolio is more stable now.



With the new balancing of the portfolio, hopefully, the following month will see extra boost to the performance.

The trades taken was less than impressive. For the case of Ezra, it was too quick to cut loss. And for Noble, the trade should not have been taken at all.

Trades Since 01-01-2011Qty. BuySellGain/Loss Fees NetProfitDIVTot Profit% ROIBoughtSold
Noble50002.10001.970-650.0071.31-721.31125-596.31-5.68%09/05/201113/06/2011
Ezra100001.42001.380-400.0098.12-498.120-498.12-3.51%14/06/201118/06/2011


However, all is not lost. At least, I am not left with a more stable portfolio. With SinoGrandness and Ezra moving very positively, the portfolio is currently about 4% in the money excluding pending dividend (provided I hold on to the counters). Since both SIA and SMRT are relatively stable counter, I would not likely to sell them easily. The price fluctuation of these 2 counters are considered very low.

Stock Name Cash HoldingsTotal QtyWgt Ave Price $Last Done Price $Unrealised P/LReason for Entry
Ezra10,0001.5501.595450.00Bounce from support
NOL10,0001.4901.485-50.00Support / Pullback
SIA1,00014.18014.340160.00Trend / Pull back / Oil price
SinoGrandness40,0000.4680.5252,300.00Support / Pullback
SMRT5,0001.8901.950300.00Support Line / price hike

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I'd like to share my experiences and knowledge about healthy and happy living as well as mid-life crisis. 不以物喜,不以己悲。