SGX Weekly stock analysis 20130125

Weekly Stock Analysis

Week Ending 2013-01-25

Potential Short Term Plays

In the bull market, it is relatively easy to spot potential counters to long. As long as one is willing to take a reasonable amount of risk, he/she will be able to make good profit from the trades. However, when the market turns, it is best to stay at the side line.

Genting SPPotential CNY rally. Short term play targeting 1.56. Entry at 1.44 - 1.46. Resistance at 1.65. If can break out of 1.65, 1.72 will be next. January to April seems to be good time for Genting SP due to CNY harvest.

Golden Agri
Short term play with low target. Potential entry 0.625-0.635. Target range of 0.67-0.68. This counter is stuck in the range. The outlook for Oil Palm plantation is not very positive with more supply coming into the market as the new development 3-4 years ago start to bear fruits. A lot depends on how the whole economy recover and demand of petroleum oil.

Hi-P
Potential bounce from support. Poor performance of Apple overhangs. 1.00 is unlikely to achieve.
Playing range of 0.70 - 0.83 is possible. If able to break out of 0.84 then 1.05 will be possible. Potential risk is break down from 0.68. Once that defense if broken, hell will break loose. This is not unthinkable as major customer Apple is facing major challenges. However, the Apple fear may be short term as long as overall demand for electronic products pick up.

STX OSV
Hammer. Potential bounce from support. Short term play can be considered. M & A target. Entry at 1.275 - 1.285 range. Target at 1.38 - 1.44 range. Some falling windows to deal with but not significant. Other factors, M&A. Potential take over target and possible delisting candidate. The overhanging fear is the low price offered by the buyer. These are the risks involved in this counter.

Stock Market Analysis Nov 8, 2012

Major factors affecting the market:

SN	Factor	Nature	Situation/Effect
1.	European Economy	macro	Situation is still not looking good. Whether it is contained is unknown. Struggling to contain it.
2.	US Economy	macro	Economic data showed growth is mild.
3.	Company results	micro	Among the US companies, results are generally good. But these are lagging data.
4.	China Growth Concerns	macro	Expectation is China will stimulate economy after hand over of power.
5.	US fiscal cliff	macro	A big concern but no clear solution or direction in sight.
6.	Consumer sentiment	macro	Generally weak in US. Job data has remained the same.

The recent market reactions to the Obama re-election:

1. US market sold down for the first 2 days after election
2. Obama is not going to worry about market. He will be focusing on real economy
3. Market ignore good company results

Market sell down is to show color to Obama.Market sell down slow down next day. Selling pressure if off.
European is still concern.
Obama will be less concern about market. More about long term benefits.
China will shift to consumer based from export base economy reducing reliance on US and Europe.

Interpretation:
Short term market will face correction pressure. Over long term, the market will recover stronger with shift towards Asia. Focus on companies deriving income from Asian and South American markets. For long term investments, wait for correct to buy in.

Short GBP/USD Oct 26, 2012

Shorted GBP/USD last week.The trade is still open. Trading is based on channel pattern and bounce off the resistance. Since the counter has been tracking this channel nicely last few weeks, it is quite a good trade. Apart from that, the 1-hour & 4-hour charts are inline with daily chart. This kind of pattern is not easy to find.

Generally, leave the trade open over the weekend is taking additional risk.

Currency Trade: EURGBP Oct 23 2012

Currency Trade recommended by Kathy Lien:

Comment:
Probably need to wait for a few days to see if the trend really reverse.

SGX Stock Watch - CSE 20120622

Just to follow up on the previous post about CSE that I did on April 02, 2012. I mentioned that break above 0.85 is potential for long. However, the market condition was not conducive enough. The counter continued its downward movements as shown in the recent chart:

Even though at the current moment, the upper trading range appears to be 0.83, the major trend is down and this upper limit is also trending downwards. The support is currently staying at about 0.70. Technical indicators are consistent, signalling continuation of the current trend with slight bias toward stabilizing price.

SGX Stock Watch 2012-04-02

Potential counter for long trade:
CSE Global. Wait for the breaking out of the symmetric triangle. This counter will become bullish if the price breaks above 0.85.

Target >1.20 or higher. Entry after 0.85.

Market Trend March 06, 2012

Has not be blogging since I was involved in a major project. Partly due to change of computer, the setting up was not quite ready.

It appears to me that the bulls are running a little bit tired. Some form of corrections should be in the cards. Maybe, it will not be major since there are still liquidity and Fed is always ready to intervene by injecting more money. Now that Greece issue is no longer a major concern, the market will be focusing on other issues. So far, economic data has been decent and it appears the economy is getting better though not that good. US presidential election coming, Fed is always ready to "help" the incumbent. That's how they protect their job?